Drought reduces forecast for grain harvest in Europe.

Grain production in the European Union and the United Kingdom is expected to fall short of expectations in 2026, pressured by drought and intense heat in key producing regions. The new projection indicates a total harvest of 279 million tons, 8 million tons below the July estimate and far from the 307.4 million tons recorded in 2025.

According to COCERAL, wheat production, excluding durum wheat, is expected to reach 137.5 million tons, compared to the previously forecast 140.8 million tons and 148.7 million tons last year. The organization reported that crops in northern France withstood the heat waves of May and June better, while Germany and Poland suffered greater losses than expected.

For barley, the forecast rose slightly, from 57.6 million to 57.9 million tons, still below the 63.3 million tons of 2025.

The biggest revision occurred in corn. The estimate fell from 52.7 million to 48.6 million tons due to extremely hot and dry weather during pollination in western and central Europe. In France, production is projected at 7.6 million tons, almost 50% below last year and at the lowest level in more than 20 years. In Hungary, the forecast is 1.9 million tons.

Canola production was estimated at 21.3 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous projection. The increase in planted area, from 6.4 million to 6.8 million hectares, helped offset the return of yields to average levels and the effects of the heat.