EN 
PT_BR 
The intensification of El Niño and the possibility of the phenomenon reaching exceptional intensity by the end of 2026 raise an alert for the... corn Second crop of 2027. A report from IRB(P&D), the research arm of the reinsurer IRB(Re), points to risks of productivity losses in the Midwest and highlights the need to monitor rainfall, planting schedule, and drought conditions during the crop cycle.
The second corn crop, also known as the "safrinha," has established itself as the main component of Brazilian corn production. In the 2024/25 harvest, production was estimated at approximately 110 million tons, out of a total of 137 million tons of corn in the country, equivalent to about 80% of national production.
Cultivated predominantly after the soybean harvest, with sowing between January and March, the second-crop corn develops, in much of the Midwest, during the transition between the rainy and dry seasons.
Therefore, changes in rainfall distribution can affect the soybean harvest and delay corn planting, increasing the crop's exposure to water deficit during critical stages of development.
According to a bulletin from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released in October, the probability of maintaining strong or very strong El Niño conditions between January and March 2027 exceeds 83%. For the period from March to May, the forecast indicates an 85% probability of the phenomenon persisting, although with a weakening trend. “This scenario reinforces the importance of anticipating the assessment of risks of severe crop failures in different producing regions, supporting the planning and management of exposures in the agricultural insurance and reinsurance sector. The results of our study suggest special attention to the possibility of simultaneous productivity losses in the Midwest during very strong El Niño events,” highlights Reinaldo Marques, Actuarial Superintendent of IRB(Re).
The IRB(P&D) analysis covers 23 second-crop corn harvests between 2003 and 2025. The study evaluated Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná, as well as five of the largest producing municipalities in each state, totaling 20 municipalities. Together, the four states accounted for approximately 72% of the national second-crop corn production between 2021 and 2025.
Among the harvests classified as being influenced by moderate or more intense El Niño, the very strong intensity events were associated with significant losses in the states of the Midwest. The 2016 drought was the most severe among the three intense events analyzed — 2010, 2016, and 2024 — being the most extensive, intense, and long-lasting. In that year, productivity anomalies reached -34% in Mato Grosso, -43% in Goiás, and -27% in Mato Grosso do Sul.
Paraná showed different behavior. In harvests classified as moderate or more intense El Niño, the average state anomaly was positive, at 2.6%. The most significant losses in the state occurred in harvests associated with moderate or more intense La Niña, such as in 2021, when the anomaly was -37%.
The survey also identified differences within states. In 2016, while Goiás recorded a loss of 43% in the state aggregate, some of the main producing municipalities even presented losses of 56%.
Given the climate risks, IRB(Re) recommends caution in planning the next winter crop, especially in regions potentially most affected by El Niño. “Historically, the second corn crop presents significant operational challenges due to short planting windows and dependence on adequate rainfall and soil moisture conditions for crop establishment and development. Operational efficiency and strategic decisions will be crucial to the crop's outcome. In this context, contracting agricultural insurance tailored to the reality of the property and the producer should also be considered an essential part of planning and risk management,” assesses Gláucio Toyama, Director of Hub Agro Solutions at IRB(Re).
Despite the risks, the study highlights that El Niño's influence on the climate of the Central-West region presents spatial and temporal variations. Thus, the intensity of the phenomenon, considered in isolation, does not allow us to anticipate the occurrence or severity of crop failures. "For the 2027 harvest, it is recommended to monitor rainfall, the agricultural calendar, and drought conditions throughout the cycle," summarizes Reinaldo Marques.
Monitoring weather conditions and the progress of the agricultural calendar will therefore be fundamental to guiding management decisions and reducing producers' exposure to the risks of losses in second-crop corn production.
