EN 
PT_BR 
The global scenario for 2025 is favorable for Brazilian pork exports, according to an analysis by Itaú BBA's Agro Consulting, despite the uncertainties generated by the ongoing tariff war. Even with production costs pressured by the rise in corn prices, pork prices should remain profitable, supported by a balanced supply, although increasing compared to 2024.
According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) semiannual global meat supply and demand update, global pork production is expected to reach 116.7 million tonnes in 2025, remaining flat from the previous year. Global exports, however, are projected to fall by 1.4%.
Among the main producers, China and the European Union, the world's first and second largest, respectively, will see production reductions of 60,000 tons and 200,000 tons. The United States, the world's third largest producer, is expected to see production growth of 1%, but with a drop in exports.
In this context, Brazil stands out. With the most competitive meat among the major exporters, the country is expected to increase production by 2.2%, to 4.6 million tons, and increase exports by 4.5%, reaching 1.6 million tons. If projections are confirmed, Brazil will be the only one among the top five exporters to register growth in 2025, renewing the records of 2024.
Photo: Disclosure/Freepik
The European Union is facing a decline in pig slaughter due to high feed costs and the effects of African swine fever, resulting in lower weight animals. In China, domestic consumption is expected to remain stable, and imports are projected at 1.3 million tonnes, falling for the fifth consecutive year.
In this scenario, Brazil is expected to increase its share in global pork exports, rising from 15% to 16% in 2025, a significant increase compared to the 9% recorded in 2020.
Itaú BBA's Agro Consultancy also highlights that, depending on the magnitude of the tariffs imposed on pork exports from the United States to Mexico, Japan and South Korea, markets still little accessed by Brazil, the scenario could become even more promising for Brazilian shipments.
