Coffee: Conilon exports fall in January, but 24/25 on track for record

In January of this year, Brazil's total coffee exports totaled 3.97 million bags, a drop of 1.6% compared to 2024. The reduction was mainly in Conilon exports, which fell 28.9%, while Arabica exports remained practically stable, with a slight drop of 0.3% in the same period.

According to Laleska Moda, Market Intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets, the drop in Conilon can be attributed to lower availability and a possible drop in demand, after high exports in 2024. In the accumulated total for the 2024/25 harvest (April-January), coffee exports already total 42 million bags, an increase of 21.7% compared to the 2023/24 harvest.

Brazilian harvest 2024/25 and expectations for 2025/26

In the 2024/25 harvest, green coffee exports broke records, with Arabica reaching 31.05 million bags (+15.3%) and Conilon, 7.79 million bags (+58.6%) compared to 2023/24. Conilon's growth was driven by lower supply from Vietnam.

Still on the 2024/25 harvest, Arabica gained market share in the European Union and the USA, but declined in Asia compared to the previous season. Conilon saw an increase in exports to Asia and the EU, while it fell in the USA. In the coming months, shipments may slow down due to lower supply and the proximity of the 2025/26 harvest, but the cycle should maintain export records.

“The increased share of Conilon in global consumption has reduced stocks to the lowest level in history, and the current price difference may favor its use in the national blend, which would limit exports in the next cycle. Thus, in 2025/26, we initially expect a drop in exports of Arabica and Conilon, with lower production of Arabica and arbitrage favoring domestic consumption of Robusta,” concludes the analyst.