EN 
PT_BR 
The USDA's March report did not change the U.S. supply and demand balance for soybeans. Chinese stocks are falling, reflecting delayed shipments from Brazil and reduced purchases in the U.S. since Trump's victory. China continues to work to reduce its dependence on grain imports, according to its Five-Year Plan 2026 to 2030.
Photos: Claudio Neves
The change in the USDA report was made in the projection of the average selling price of soybeans by the American producer, which was reduced from US$ 10.1/bushel to US$ 9.95/bushel. The USDA increased China's crushing by 2 MM t, to 105 MM t and Argentina's crushing by 1 MM t, to 42 MM t, therefore, world stocks were reduced by 3 MM t, from 124 to 121 MM t. Production in Brazil and Argentina was maintained at 169 and 49 MM t, respectively. In the general context, the global balance of supply and demand for soybeans is a more supplied balance in the 2024/25 harvest, mainly due to Brazil's record production.
China is now receiving soybeans that were shipped in late December and January, a volume that was lower than normal, given the delay in the Brazilian harvest. Soybean stocks are falling, also reducing processing. Exports from Brazil have started to gain traction now, with around 9 MM tons shipped to China in the last 4 weeks, which has favored the appreciation of premiums. Considering that the soybeans shipped now will arrive at their destination in late April and, until then, Chinese stocks will remain low, the scenario seems favorable for premiums to remain appreciated in the coming weeks.
Despite Chinese efforts to reduce imports, we believe that this need for soybeans will continue to be present and increasingly linked to Brazil. Despite the trade impasse, which is reducing Chinese demand in the US in the short term, it seems to make sense that the Americans will be less and less important to China in this market in the coming years.
