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The international fertilizer market is operating cautiously amid the possibility of China restricting its exports in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to a weekly report from StoneX, a global financial services company, this measure is common in the months leading up to the application season in the Asian country and aims to guarantee domestic supply and control prices for Chinese farmers.
According to StoneX Market Intelligence analyst Tomás Pernías, Chinese authorities tend to prioritize the domestic market during this period, which can compromise the global supply of fertilizers — especially nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, categories in which China is one of the world's leading exporters.
Tomás Pernías, Market Intelligence analyst: “Although this policy is recurrent, there is rarely predictability in the decisions of the Chinese government.”
“Although this policy is recurrent, there is rarely predictability in the decisions of the Chinese government. The lack of clarity about when restrictions will be implemented or lifted increases uncertainty and generates instability among importers, who may be forced to seek alternative sources of supply in the face of the unavailability of Chinese products in the international market,” he states.
In 2024, China's MAP (monoammonium phosphate) exports accounted for approximately 16% of the global export volume, reinforcing the country's relevance in the global supply chain. Since MAP is widely used in the Brazilian market, any restrictions on Chinese exports could directly affect supply in Brazil.
For Brazilian importers, the reduction in global supply tends to be negative, as it may intensify competition for cargo and raise prices. "For farmers, the scenario is also challenging, especially at a time of high production costs and unattractive terms of trade," Pernías points out.
Still, it's important to consider the domestic calendar. In Brazil, the buying momentum generally loses strength in the last quarters of the year, since most purchases occur before the planting of the summer crop. "Given this, the impact of a possible Chinese restriction will depend on the type of fertilizer affected and the behavior of demand in each segment," concludes the analyst.
Want to understand the outlook for the fertilizer sector in the coming months? Download the free Quarterly Commodity Outlook Report by clicking here. here.
