2025/26 wheat harvest expected to reach 7.3 million tons in Brazil

The 2025/26 wheat harvest in Brazil is already consolidated and is even progressing in some regions. According to the September wheat harvest outlook report from StoneX, a global financial services company, there are no changes in production figures compared to the August forecast: 7.3 million tons.

StoneX Risk Management Consultant Jonathan Pinheiro: "There could be an increase in carryover stocks, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, or even a reduction in import demand, although I believe this is unlikely."

This is because recent weather events have not significantly impacted yields, with some shortfalls, albeit very isolated. Overall, sentiment remains quite positive regarding crop yields this season across all producing regions, according to StoneX Risk Management consultant Jonathan Pinheiro.

The expert points out that the sector is now observing the current exchange rate scenario, which could reduce export potential due to the country's low competitiveness, bringing still uncertain impacts on the supply and demand balance.

"There could be an increase in transit inventories, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, or even a reduction in import demand, although I believe this is unlikely. Cabotage operations could resume, if this is confirmed, with an excess supply in the South of the country," Pinheiro concluded.