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PT_BR 
The possibility of a more intense El Niño in 2027 increases attention on the global food supply, especially in markets dependent on the balance between production, stocks, and international trade. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst of the food chain... riceThe main risk is not necessarily a widespread shortage of the grain, but a reduction in the volume available for export and pressure on prices if different producing regions are affected at the same time.
In Mercosur, the concern coincides with the start of the 2026/27 crop season. Rio Grande do Sul, Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay are already facing a combination of climate, water availability, high costs, and difficulty obtaining credit, factors that make the beginning of the cycle more sensitive.
The United States is also on the radar due to the availability of rice, while Central America, a relevant market for both the US and Mercosur, is identified as a region particularly vulnerable to the effects of El Niño. In Panama, signs of water shortages could increase concerns by also impacting the operation of the Panama Canal, bringing together climatic, agricultural, and logistical risks.
In Asia, the behavior of India, China, Thailand, and Vietnam could also be decisive. These countries have significant weight in the global rice balance, and any production problems or export restrictions could rapidly alter the international market.
In this scenario, the central question becomes who will have a surplus to supply importing countries and at what price, should El Niño simultaneously reduce production in different regions. For the rice market, the assessment indicates that this risk already warrants monitoring.
