EN 
PT_BR 
Mato Grosso do Sul enters a period of greater instability starting this Tuesday (29). After a start to the week marked by intense heat, the combination of high temperatures, the availability of moisture and the advance of a cold front increases the conditions for the formation of storms in the state.
The change begins to be noticed this Tuesday, mainly in the central-south and south of Mato Grosso do Sul, where rain showers may occur with greater intensity. The scenario becomes even more favorable for storms on Wednesday (30), when the instability spreads and the level of attention increases in a larger part of the state.
The forecast reflects a broader shift in weather patterns across the Central-West region. The week began with extreme heat and more isolated showers, but Mato Grosso do Sul is the first state in the region to experience the most direct influence of the instabilities associated with the frontal system.
Tuesday will still be hot, with temperatures close to 40°C.
Before the rain arrives more efficiently, the heat remains very intense this Tuesday. Maximum temperatures could reach 40°C in cities such as Corumbá, Porto Murtinho, Caracol, Selvíria, Paranaíba, Ladário, Aparecida do Taboado, and Brasilândia.
This strong warming helps to make the atmosphere more favorable for the formation of storm clouds. Even before the arrival of more organized instability, the heat already favors the development of convective showers, which can occur in a localized manner.
Throughout the day, rain is expected to increase, especially over areas in the south, southwest, and central parts of the state. Cities near the border with Paraguay, as well as the Campo Grande region, are among the areas with the highest probability of rain.
The risk map for Tuesday places part of the state on alert, with the possibility of moderate to heavy showers accompanied by lightning and gusts of wind. In the far south of Mato Grosso do Sul, the risk is higher, with areas classified as under alert for storms.
Risk of storms increases on Wednesday.
The situation requires even more attention on Wednesday (30). Instability is organizing over a larger area of Mato Grosso do Sul and the risk of storms is advancing mainly through the central-south, south and southwest of the state.
In these areas, conditions are favorable for moderate to heavy rain, lightning, and wind gusts, with the possibility of more intense localized events. According to the risk map, a large area of south-central Mato Grosso do Sul is now at the alert level, while other areas remain under observation.
Rain is also becoming more widespread. Regions near Nova Andradina, Ivinhema, Taquarussu, Angélica, Itaporã, Douradina, Rio Brilhante, and Campo Grande appear among the areas with the greatest potential for precipitation during the day.
With increased cloud cover and rain, the heat weakens. After highs near or around 40°C are forecast for Tuesday, on Wednesday the highest temperatures will be concentrated mainly in the Pantanal region, with Corumbá and Ladário still potentially reaching 36°C. In much of the state, highs will be lower.
Thursday will have milder temperatures in MS.
On Thursday (1st), the temperature change becomes even more evident. The highs should no longer reach the levels recorded at the beginning of the week and, even in the hottest areas of the state, they will be close to 29°C.
In southern Mato Grosso do Sul, minimum temperatures also decrease, reaching around 19°C in cities such as Coronel Sapucaia, Tacuru, Sete Quedas, Aral Moreira, and Paranhos.
Rain is still possible in different parts of the state, but the highest rainfall totals are shifting towards the northern and eastern sectors, including areas near Chapadão do Sul, Três Lagoas, Inocência, and Costa Rica.
Cold front brings change in weather.
The change is favored by the advance of the cold front associated with the system acting between southern and southeastern Brazil. As the system advances, moisture convergence and instability over Mato Grosso do Sul increase, favoring the formation of more organized rain areas.
Until this system arrives, the strong warming maintains the possibility of the formation of quite localized storms. Therefore, even in areas where the forecast indicates lower rainfall volumes, the occurrence of isolated storms cannot be ruled out, especially during the hottest hours of the day. This possibility was also highlighted in the analysis for the Central-West region due to the difficulty of the models in representing some recent isolated storms.
The trend, therefore, points to a change in the weather in Mato Grosso do Sul between Tuesday and Wednesday: the extreme heat will gradually subside, while the rain will become more widespread and increase the risk of storms.
