Exportação Recorde Não Segura Queda Das Cotações Do Suíno

Brazil continues to maintain significant growth in pork exports. In March of this year, the country exported 152,200 tons of fresh and processed pork (Table 1), 32.81 TP4T more than shipped in March 2025. The volume was 1.41 TP4T higher than the previous monthly record, which had been reached in September 2025. March was also the month with the highest average daily shipment of fresh pork (5,980 tons/working day), the highest in the historical series of the Secex (Secretariat of Foreign Trade), which began in 1997.

In the year-to-date figures, we closed the first quarter of 2026 with 15.3% (+44.5 thousand tons) more fresh meat than the same period last year (table 2), with the Philippines standing out, representing more than 30% of the exported volume during the period.

The consolidated slaughter data for the first quarter of the year has not yet been published, but preliminary figures from the SIF (Federal Inspection Service) indicate growth of around 4% in the number of head compared to the same period in 2025, in establishments under this inspection. Considering that exports grew by almost 16% during the period, and that shipments represent around 25% of the destination of Brazilian pork production, it can be inferred that almost all the excess production was exported, with no significant oversupply in the domestic market. However, the prices of live pigs and carcasses (graphs 1 and 2), especially in recent weeks, have "melted," indicating an imbalance between supply and demand.

In the accumulated figures for April 2026, the sharp drop in pork prices, coinciding with the rise in beef prices, caused the competitiveness of pork carcasses in relation to beef to reach its best level since March 2022 (graph 3). On the other hand, in relation to chilled chicken, the competitiveness of pork carcasses in April 2026 is the best since September 2022 (graph 4). In other words, at the wholesale level, pork is relatively cheap compared to beef and chicken. These correlations do not necessarily repeat themselves at the retail level in the same proportion, as each protein and each link in the value chain has its own dynamics, but the tendency is that the consumer will, at some point, identify these differences that may influence their choice.

With the planting of the second corn crop completed, the "die is cast." Irregular rainfall in April increased the risk of losses. Prices fell again (graph 5), and the perception is that the second crop, even with further weather-related losses, will be substantial. Conab revised its total 2025/26 corn harvest estimate to 139.6 million tons, but according to Mbagro, a price increase later on is not ruled out if crop conditions worsen.

Even with the decline in corn prices and stable soybean meal, the sharp drop in pork prices caused the exchange rate with the main inputs of the activity to plummet to a "dangerous" level, below 5.0; a value considered high-risk for determining losses in the activity, depending on the farm's productivity. The last time this exchange rate was below 5.0 was in December 2023 (graph 6).

Final considerations

According to the president of ABCS, Marcelo Lopes, despite high exports, March and April 2026 were the worst months in terms of prices paid to producers since the last crisis. “The situation isn't more serious only because of relative stability in the prices of the main inputs (corn and soybean meal), but the terms of trade already determine negative margins in production. There is a clear imbalance between supply and demand for pork in a scenario that is not expected to change in the very short term. We hope that the arrival of winter and the start of the World Cup, as well as the approach of the elections, will boost demand in the medium term. One encouraging aspect is that the competitiveness of pork compared to other meats offers opportunities to expand consumption and occupy more space on the Brazilian consumer's table,” he concludes.