EN 
PT_BR 
The week ended with corn at R$ 67.74 per 60 kilo bag, the rice In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of 50-kilogram sacks of unfinished beef was R$ 76.20, and the price of live cattle was R$ 345.70 per arroba, all based on data from August 20th. The commercial dollar was near R$ 5.14 on Friday.
Logically, a record harvest drives down prices. That's not what happened with the... corn in August.
The ESALQ/B3 Indicator of corn The index closed on August 20th at R$ 67.74, up 0.52% on the day. The indicator was at R$ 65.02 on the 7th and reached R$ 66.09 on the 13th. This marks four consecutive increases at the end of the week and nine sessions of gains in the last ten.
The result is a 2.5% increase for the week and approximately 4.2% accumulated in August up to the 20th, according to Agrolink's calculations based on Cepea's data. This is with Conab projecting 142.96 million tons of... corn in the 2025/26 crop season.
What keeps the price of corn It's not a lack of grain, it's a lack of available grain. Producers are holding back on sales, the second crop harvest is still underway in some areas, and buyers are replenishing their stocks, limiting supply in the spot market. The volume exists, but it doesn't all reach the market at the same time.
On the B3 exchange, the September 2026 contract hovered around R$ 71.20 per sack on Friday. In Chicago, the December contract traded above US$ 5.00 per bushel.
In soyMeanwhile, the indicator in Paranaguá remained largely unchanged. The November contract on the B3 exchange stayed close to US$$ 27.30 per sack, and Chicago closed the week with September trading between 1.222 and 1.225 cents per bushel.
Node riceThe agricultural sector in Rio Grande do Sul remains strong. The Indicator of rice The price of unhusked coffee in Rio Grande do Sul, calculated by Cepea in partnership with Irga, closed on August 20 at R$ 76.20 per 50-kilo bag, with a variation of 0.16%.
In the physical market, prices were above the indicator. In Capivari do Sul, Coripil was paying R$82.00 per 50-kilo bag. In Pelotas, Cereagro was priced at R$80.00, and the average for Rio Grande do Sul was R$79.00. In Rio do Sul, Santa Catarina, Cravil was paying R$66.00.
The distance between the farm gate and the factory becomes evident when looking at the wholesale market. In Paraná, the rice The price of needlefish in husk was quoted at R$ 108.03 per sack in the Deral/Seab survey.
In the beef market, the price per arroba (a unit of weight) fell, but the future points upwards. The Cepea/B3 live cattle indicator closed on August 20th at R$ 345.70 per arroba for immediate delivery, up 0.25%. The average price in São Paulo for future delivery was R$ 349.45. Cepea's reading for the week showed the price per arroba losing strength while meat prices remain firm in the wholesale market.
The futures curve tells a different story. On the B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange), the August contract closed at R$ 345.75 and the September contract at R$ 355.80. October rose to R$ 365.00, November to R$ 368.00 and December to R$ 370.00. January 2027 marked R$ 375.90 and February, R$ 376.00. From the short to the long end, the market is pricing in an appreciation of approximately 8.7%.
In the physical market, the regional spread is large. Northwest Paraná and Santa Catarina were paying R$ 355.50 per arroba for cash, while Acre was paying R$ 306.00, according to a survey by Scot Consultoria. That's a difference of more than 16% between the two ends of the country.
In Rio Grande do Sul, the reference price is per kilogram: R$ 12.55 in the West and R$ 12.65 in Pelotas, cash. The price for fat cows was R$ 11.35 and R$ 11.50, respectively. For replacement cattle, the calf indicator in Mato Grosso do Sul closed at R$ 3,396.06 per head.
In the international market, Arabica coffee for September delivery closed at 361.45 cents per pound in New York, while the contract for the same expiration date on the B3 exchange was R$ at R$419.00 per 60kg bag. Sugar for October delivery settled at 17.60 cents per pound and... cotton of the same due date, at 87.58 cents.
The commercial dollar closed the week near R$ 5.14, down on the day. The Focus Bulletin released on August 17 maintained the currency projection at R$ 5.20 for the end of 2026, with the Selic rate at 13.75% per year, IPCA at 5.02% and GDP at 1.98%. The basic rate is currently at 14% per year, after the 0.25 percentage point cut decided by the Copom on August 5.
A stronger Real is good for those who buy inputs and bad for those who sell commodities. It's worth keeping an eye on.
Price alone, however, says little. What matters for the decision at the farm gate is how much one product buys of the other.
In the cattle/exchange relationshipcorn, with the arroba at R$ 345.70 and the sack of corn at R$ 67.74, approximately 5.1 bags are needed. corn To buy a 15 kg unit of fat cattle. It's a direct indicator of the profit margin for feedlot operations.
In restocking, with the Mato Grosso do Sul calf at R$ 3,396.06 and the arroba at R$ 345.70, the cattle rancher needs approximately 9.8 arrobas to buy a calf. The higher the number, the tighter the calculation becomes for those buying animals to fatten. Both calculations are from Agrolink, based on indicators published by Cepea on the dates mentioned.
For next week, three points deserve attention: if the corn The upward trend continues, or if the influx of held-up lots begins to exert pressure; the behavior of the exchange rate, which defines the export parity of soy, corn and sugar and the import parity of wheat...and Cepea's analysis of wholesale meat demand, which is currently what sustains the price per arroba (unit of weight).
