EN 
PT_BR 
The increase in production and inventory estimates of corn In the United States, the pressure on international grain prices fell during the week ending October 15th. On the Chicago Board of Trade, the price of the first traded contract closed Thursday at US$ 4.78 per bushel, the lowest value since August 20th. This movement occurred after the release of new figures from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). According to an analysis by the International Center for Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (CEEMA), the supply and demand report showed a larger US harvest than expected by the market.
U.S. corn production was estimated at 407.3 million tons for the 2026/27 season, approximately 6 million tons higher than the forecast released in September.
US ending stocks were also revised upwards, reaching 47 million tons, an increase of just over 6 million tons compared to the previous estimate. The expectation of greater availability of the grain contributed to the fall in prices traded in Chicago.
Globally, corn production was projected at 1.294 billion tons, an increase of 3 million tons over the September estimate. Global ending stocks, in turn, reached 280.4 million tons, an increase of 8.3 million tons.
While the market reacted to the new projections, the North American harvest progressed. By October 11, producers had completed work on 331 TP4T of the cultivated area, compared to 231 TP4T the previous week. Despite the progress, the result remained below the historical average of 391 TP4T.
In Iowa, one of the main corn-producing states in the United States, only 141 TP4T of the area had been harvested, while the average for the period was 341 TP4T. In South Dakota, harvesting reached 151 TP4T, compared to a historical average of 311 TP4T.
Harvest progress was greater in other states. Illinois recorded 51% of the area harvested, exceeding the average of 44%, while Missouri reached 64%, also above the historical percentage of 61%.
Crop conditions improved during the week. According to the USDA, 56% of the area still being monitored was in good or excellent condition, compared to 54% in the previous assessment. Another 27% were in fair condition, 12% in poor condition, and 5% in very poor condition.
In foreign trade, US corn shipments totaled 1.3 million tons in the week ending October 8, within market expectations. For the year to date, shipments reached 8.45 million tons, a result 51% higher than the same period last year.
In addition to the United States, Argentina has also expanded its presence in the international market. The prospect of a record harvest and the reduction of export taxes have increased the availability of Argentine corn for foreign trade.
The increased supply in both countries intensifies international competition. With more product available, buyers find alternative sources of supply, while exporting countries compete for space in the main consumer markets.
