Brazil's grain harvest is expected to reach 358 million tons in 2025/26.

Brazilian grain production in the 2025/26 crop is estimated at 358 million tons, according to the 8th Grain Crop Survey released this Thursday (14) by the National Supply Company (Conab). The volume represents growth of 1.6% compared to the previous cycle, equivalent to an increase of 5.7 million tons, and reinforces the expectation of a new national record.

Photo: Press release/Aprosoja MT

Performance is primarily driven by soybean, corn, and sorghum crops, which remain the main drivers of the country's agricultural production.

Soybean production is expected to reach 180.1 million tons, setting a new historical record. This figure represents an increase of 8.6 million tons compared to the 2024/25 harvest, a growth of 5%, and a positive adjustment of 0.5% compared to the previous projection. To date, 98.3% of the area has already been harvested, according to Conab.

In the case of corn, the total production of the three harvests is estimated at 140.2 million tons, the second largest volume in the historical series. Compared to the previous survey, there was an increase of 0.4%, equivalent to 600,000 tons. The first harvest already collected totals approximately 28.5 million tons, while the second harvest should reach 108.5 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.6% influenced by weather conditions in states such as Goiás and Minas Gerais. Even so, the planted area of the cereal grew by 2.1% in the country.

Photo: Jonas Oliveira/Seab

Sorghum is emerging as one of the fastest-growing crops, with projected growth of up to 23.81 TP4T and an estimated production of 7.6 million tons. This growth is explained by the expansion of cultivated area, especially in the Midwest, where the increase reached 50.71 TP4T. In Goiás, the main producer, the expectation is for an increase of 40.31 TP4T, exceeding 2.2 million tons. According to Fabiano Vasconcellos, Crop Monitoring Manager at Conab, the migration of areas originally intended for corn explains part of this movement, given the closing of the ideal planting window and sorghum's greater tolerance to water deficiency.

Photo: Sandra Brito

In the market, Conab highlights the growth in domestic corn consumption, driven by the ethanol industry, with projected growth of 4.61% and an estimated volume of 94.86 million tons. Exports are also expected to remain high, potentially reaching 46.5 million tons. Even so, the final stock of the cereal should remain close to 12.98 million tons.

For soybeans, the outlook is for shipments of up to 116 million tons, an increase of 7.25% compared to the previous cycle, following the strong production performance.

The complete survey data is available in the 8th Grain Crop Survey 2025/26, released by Conab.