Global wheat harvest expected to hit new record in 2025/26

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, global wheat production is expected to reach a new all-time high of 809 million tons, driven primarily by large producers. Global consumption is expected to follow suit, closing above the previous harvest's volume. Ending stocks are projected at 262.8 million tons, a decline for the sixth consecutive year. Despite this, global exports are expected to remain high and exceed the previous harvest, estimated at 215.3 million tons.

Photo: Gilson Abreu

Given the increase in production, the scenario is one of fierce competition among exporters, which has been putting pressure on futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Exchange rate volatility and the geopolitical environment, including protectionist measures such as tariffs imposed by the United States, are expected to continue influencing prices throughout the season. Wheat is also affected by the performance of corn, its substitute in animal feed—and the downward trend in corn prices contributes to a downward bias in the wheat market.

In the United States, production is expected to reach 52.3 million tons, a decrease of 3% compared to the previous cycle. Ending stocks are expected to rise to 24.4 million tons, an increase of 7%. The average producer price is estimated at US$$ per bushel, slightly below the previous harvest. With increased domestic supply and a weaker dollar, US wheat becomes more competitive. US exports are expected to reach 22.4 million tons, the highest volume since 2020/21, although this increase is contingent on competition with competitors such as the European Union and Russia.

In Brazil, pressure from the international market is expected to keep domestic prices low. According to Itaú BBA, Brazilian producers may again face tight margins in the 2025/26 harvest, with no consistent signs of recovery in the short term.