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Even without the release of the traditional supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), suspended in October due to the US government shutdown, the market remained focused on the latest updates on stocks and production, which are fundamental for projections for the 2025/26 crop year. The October report usually consolidates the closing data for the 2024/25 soybean and corn season, incorporating information from the quarterly stock survey released at the end of September. These figures serve as the basis for the initial stocks of the new season and, therefore, have a direct impact on global supply and demand estimates.
Photo: Alvaro Rezende
According to Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets, the absence of the report does not diminish its strategic importance. "The ending stocks from the previous harvest become the beginning stocks for the new season, potentially leading to significant changes in the outlook for the next harvest," he explains.
The USDA's quarterly survey, published on September 30, showed higher-than-expected corn stocks and slightly lower-than-expected soybean stocks. Corn stocks totaled 1.532 billion bushels, 15% above market expectations, giving the report a bearish tone. Soybean stocks reached 316 million bushels, about 2% below expectations, with a neutral effect on prices. Wheat stocks reached 2.120 billion bushels, 4% above expectations, which brought slight downward pressure.
The USDA also revised its production projections for major commodities. Corn production for the 2024/25 crop year was raised from...
Photo: Disclosure/OPR Archive
The estimate for soybean production rose from 14.867 billion to 14.892 billion bushels, an increase of 0.161 TP4T. For soybeans, the estimate increased from 4.366 billion to 4.374 billion bushels, an advance of 0.181 TP4T. Wheat for the 2025/26 season saw a more significant increase, from 1.927 billion to 1.985 billion bushels, equivalent to 31 TP4T.
Although the adjustments were specific, both corn and soybean stocks are lower than at the same time last year, a scenario that was already expected by the market. The revisions reinforce the importance of the consolidated figures that will be released in the next USDA report, scheduled for November, and which should confirm supply and demand trends for the new agricultural cycle.
