Exportações De Carnes Suína E Bovina Batem Recorde E Impulsionam O Agronegócio Em 2025

Throughout 2025, one of the most important factors in maintaining strong demand for pork has been the growth in exports. In practically every month of the year, Brazil exported more compared to 2024, with September registering the highest monthly volume of pork shipped in history, with just over 134,000 tons of pork. in nature (Table 1). Considering all products, between in nature In September, processed pork exports reached 151,600 tons. For the year to date (January to September), Brazil exported 985,000 tons of pork. in nature, 14,28% (+123,120 tons) more than the same period last year.

Consolidating its leadership, the Philippines, in September 2025, was the destination for more than 30% of our pork. in its natural state; China remains in second place, and the growth in purchases from Japan, Mexico, and Vietnam is noteworthy (Table 2).

It wasn't just pork that stood out in September's exports; beef hit a new monthly shipping record, and chicken continues to approach levels seen before the avian influenza outbreak at a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul in May (Table 3). The combined volume of the three meats exceeded 900,000 tons in September 2025, an unprecedented value for a single month. Furthermore, in the year-to-date figures (between January and September), even with the temporary decline in chicken shipments between May and August, 6.47 million tons have already been reached, almost 61 TP4T more than the same period in 2024 (Table 3).

We do not yet have official slaughter data for the third quarter of 2025, but it is projected that the year will end with slight growth in the production of all three meats, somewhere between 2.5% and 41% of the total. Analyzing chicken exports, which are recovering after the aforementioned health problem, the growth in shipments coincided with the recovery of wholesale chicken carcass prices, with a considerable increase in September 2025 and a continuation of the upward trend in October (graph 1).

The domestic cattle market, even with exports at a good pace, has been "moving sideways" for several months, with stable prices (graph 2), indicating that the cattle cycle turnaround has not yet materialized and that domestic availability remains tight.

Pork carcasses reached their highest price of the year in September 2025, but showed a decline in the first half of October (graph 3).

Undoubtedly, this rise in pork carcass prices in September was driven by exports, as there are reports of exporting agribusinesses buying pigs on the independent market to meet their domestic demand. When analyzing the recent behavior of the live pig market for slaughter in the three southern states, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais, the price behavior in the latter is noteworthy. As can be seen in Graph 4 below, Minas Gerais, which had prices slightly below São Paulo and above the southern states, experienced the sharpest drop in mid-September compared to the other regions, at times having the lowest price among these markets. It is worth noting that around 90% of Brazilian exports originate from the three southern states and that São Paulo is the largest consumer market, but it is not self-sufficient in production. In other words, this movement in the Minas Gerais market is yet another indication that, during this period, exports were what sustained prices.

CONAB forecasts a record grain harvest in 2025/26, with increased soybean production and a slight decrease in corn volumes.

On October 14th, Conab released its first 2025/26 crop survey, forecasting an increase in soybean production of approximately 3.61 TP4T, growing from 171.4 million tons in the previous harvest to 177.6 million tons for the current planting season. For corn, a reduction in production of 1.81 TP4T is expected, from 141 to 138.6 million tons. The summer crop currently being planted is expected to yield around 25 million tons, practically the same as the first crop of the previous season. Even with this expected reduction in corn production, there is no foreseeable risk of a corn shortage in the coming months, supported by lower-than-expected exports due to stable corn prices (graph 5) and...

Final considerations

The president of ABCS, Marcelo Lopes, explains that despite the high meat exports in September, there was a decline in pork prices in most markets in Brazil, especially in the state of Minas Gerais, which has the largest herd of breeding sows in the independent (non-integrated) production system. “However, by mid-October, prices are already showing signs of stabilization throughout the country, with an upward trend as November approaches, which historically is the month with the best prices for pig farmers. Although the rainy season in the central-southern region of Brazil has still relatively low water volumes, there is a good outlook regarding the weather and planting intentions, which should keep production costs stable,” he concludes.