Brazil must break historical barriers in soybean production and export by 2026.

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) released new estimates for the supply and demand balance of the soybean complex in 2026, reinforcing expectations of unprecedented results for the sector. National production is projected at 177.7 million tons, while crushing is expected to reach 60.5 million tons, also boosting industrial volumes: soybean meal production is estimated at 46.6 million tons, and soybean oil production is expected to reach 12.5 million tons.

Photo: Jaelson Lucas

In foreign trade, projections keep Brazil on an upward trajectory. Abiove forecasts exports of 111 million tons of grains, in addition to 24.6 million tons of bran and 1.2 million tons of oil, the latter with an increase of 201% compared to the previous cycle.

Imports are expected to remain at moderate levels: approximately 125,000 tons of soybean oil and 500,000 tons of grains, destined for domestic supply. “Even with occasional adjustments, the numbers reinforce the strength of the soybean supply chain and the sector's ability to efficiently meet the demands of the domestic and international markets. The expansion of processing, coupled with the consistent pace of exports, confirms Brazil's strategic role in the international trade of the soybean complex,” states Daniel Furlan Amaral, Director of Economics and Regulatory Affairs at Abiove.

Performance in 2025

Consolidated data up to September 2025 also shows progress in the sector. Soybean production in the cycle reached 172.1 million tons.

Photo: Alvaro Rezende

tons, while the projected crushing volume was 58.5 million tons.

The supply of soybean meal is expected to reach 45.1 million tons, and that of soybean oil, 11.7 million tons, remaining stable in relation to industrial performance.

Pace of exports

In September 2025, processing totaled 4.1 million tons, a decrease of 9.11 TP4T compared to August and 1.21 TP4T compared to September 2024, considering the sample adjustment.

Nevertheless, the sector continues to expand: in the year to date, processing has grown by 5.1% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 39.3 million tons.