EN 
PT_BR 
Wheat prices in Santa Catarina weakened again in October. The price paid to producers fell 12.11% during the month, closing at R$63.71 per 60-kilogram sack, according to [source missing]. Santa Catarina Agricultural BulletinCompared to October 2024, the drop is also 12%. The devaluation follows the national trend and reflects a market pressured by high supply, the arrival of imported wheat, high carryover stocks, an exchange rate around R$ 5.33, and expectations of a record global harvest.
The current situation has led producers to record losses. The report indicates that, even adjusted for inflation using the IGP-DI index, prices continue on a downward trajectory in the first days of November, with no signs of recovery in the short term.
It is estimated that only in the second half of 2026, with the reduction of global and national inventories, will prices be able to react.
Area shrinks
According to João Rogério Alves, an agricultural engineer at Epagri/Cepa, market pressure is already reflected in planting decisions. For the 2025/26 harvest, Santa Catarina is expected to reduce its cultivated area by 14.81 TP4T, to 104,900 hectares. "The projected production is 374,700 tons, a decrease of 13.31 TP4T compared to the previous harvest, despite a slight increase of 1.71 TP4T in average productivity, estimated at 3,573 kg/ha," he points out.
Even with the reduced planting, Alves highlights that crop performance is considered positive: 87% are in good condition and 12% in average condition. Half of the area is maturing, 25% in flowering, and 25% in the vegetative phase. "With the start of the harvest in October, new field assessments indicated improvements in yield and quality indicators," he states.
Photo: Airton Pasinatto
According to the agricultural engineer, however, the climatic conditions vary between the microregions. In the south of the state, the combination of intense rains and the subsequent arrival of a cold front altered the pace of the crops, but without significant damage. In the Southern Plateau, development is considered good. In Curitibanos, however, the alternation between heat, humidity and cold nights increased the incidence of diseases such as Fusarium head blight, raising the costs of pesticides.
In the Northern Plateau, there is also concern about fungal diseases, favored by constant humidity. In the West, especially in the regions of Chapecó, Xanxerê, and São Miguel do Oeste, excessive rainfall delays the harvest and compromises grain quality. Reported yields vary from 57 to 82 sacks per hectare, with a soil moisture content between 75 and 80.
The decline is nationwide and is expected to continue.
However, Alves explains that the downward trend is not exclusive to Santa Catarina. “In October, Rio Grande do Sul registered a drop of 9.8% and Paraná, of 9.5% in the over-the-counter market. In the country, Conab estimates point to a reduction of 19.9% in the planted area in 2025/26, totaling 2.45 million hectares. Productivity, however, should increase by 21.8% with the support of the weather, reaching 3,142 kg/ha. Despite this, national production should decrease by 2.4%, to 7.7 million tons,” he emphasizes.
The harvest is progressing at different paces: in Paraná, the rains at the end of October delayed the completion of the work, which is nearing [end].
Photo: Gilson Abreu
85%. In Rio Grande do Sul, the delay is a consequence of later planting and low temperatures throughout the cycle.
With a high availability of wheat on the market precisely at the peak of the national harvest, pressure on prices is likely to continue. And, even with crops in good condition in Santa Catarina, the scenario of weak profitability challenges the producer, who is harvesting a technically well-structured but economically unfavorable crop.
