A 28.61% increase in exports to China offsets the US tariff hike.

The increase in Brazilian exports to China offset the drop caused by the US tariff hike, which began in August and included surcharges of up to 50% on Brazilian sales to the United States.

From August to November, the value of exports to China grew by 28.61% of the national currency (TP4T) compared to the same period in 2024, while the value of exports to the United States fell by 25.11% of the national currency (TP4T).

Similar behavior is observed in relation to the volume of external sales. When the destination is Chinese ports and airports, the expansion reaches 30%. For the United States, however, there is a decrease of 23.5%. What differentiates the behavior of the values and volumes is the price of the exported products.

The data are part of the Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), released this Thursday (18) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre) of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). The study is an analysis of data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Mdic).

China is Brazil's main trading partner, ahead of the United States. According to Icomex, China's share, which receives about 30% of Brazilian exports, helped offset the drop in sales to the United States. "[US President Donald] Trump overestimated the United States' capacity to inflict widespread damage on Brazilian exports," the report states.

Impacted sectors

The sectors that experienced the largest drops in exports to the United States between August and November were:

• Extraction of non-metallic minerals: -72.9%
• Beverage manufacturing: -65.7%
• Tobacco product manufacturing: -65.7%
• Extraction of metallic minerals: -65.3%
• Forest production: -60.2%
• Manufacture of metal products, except machinery and equipment: -51,2%
• Wood product manufacturing: -49,4%

Annual behavior

The FGV survey notes that the volume of sales to the United States grew steadily from April to July, whenever compared to the same month in 2024. However, with the implementation of the tariff increase, four months of decline followed.

Change in export volume to the United States in 2025, compared to the same month in 2024:

• April: +13.3%
• May: +9%
• June: +8.5%
• July: +6.7%
• August: -12.7%
• September: -16.6%
• October: -35.3%
• November: -28%

Exports to China, however, have jumped since the tariff hike began.

• April: +6.4%
• May: +8.1%
• June: +10.3%
• July: -0.3%
• August: +32.7%
• September: +15.2%
• October: +32.7%
• November: +42.8%

Lia Valls, an associate researcher at Ibre/FGV, points out that one of the factors that led to the increase in Chinese exports was the shipment of soybeans, which was concentrated in the second half of the year. "At the time when exports to the United States were falling, that was when exports to China began to increase more, and it had an impact on the country's overall exports," she explained to Agência Brasil.

In the period up to November, the increase in total Brazilian exports was 4.31% compared to the same 11 months of 2024.

Argentina

Icomex also shows the performance of exports to our third main trading partner, Argentina. From August to November, sales to the country grew 51% in value and 7.8% in volume, compared to the same period last year.

Lia Valls points out that this increase is not enough to offset the effects of the tariff hikes. "Argentina's share of Brazilian exports is very small. Argentina is very focused on exporting automobiles, and we practically don't export automobiles to the United States," she notes.

Understand the tariff increase.

US President Donald Trump's tariff hikes came into effect in August 2025. By raising tariffs on imported goods, the US government claims it intends to protect the American economy, since, with higher tariffs, Americans tend to manufacture products locally instead of buying them abroad.

In the case of Brazil, which suffered one of the highest rates, the American president even claimed that it was retaliation for the treatment given by Brazil to former president Jair Bolsonaro, whom Trump considered to be persecuted, before being convicted by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in September 2025 for attempted coup d'état.

Since then, the Brazilian and American governments have been negotiating ways to reach agreements for the trade partnership, including direct talks between Trump and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

On the 20th, Trump removed the additional 40% tariff on 269 products, 249 of which are from the agricultural sector, such as meat and coffee. "The effects of this removal will only become visible from December and January," points out Icomex.

Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Geraldo Alckmin, estimates that 221% of exports to the United States remain subject to surcharges.