EN 
PT_BR 
Brazilian exports to the United States began 2026 in decline. According to the Brazil-US Trade Monitor, prepared by Amcham Brazil, sales to the American market totaled US$2.4 billion in January, a decrease of 25.5% year-on-year and the sixth consecutive decline.
Brazilian imports of US products also decreased, falling by 10.91% in the same period. Because the contraction in exports was more intense, the Brazilian trade deficit in bilateral relations reached approximately US$0.7 billion — more than triple the amount recorded in January 2025.
Tariffs and oil prices put pressure on the balance of trade.
The negative performance was mainly driven by crude oil, whose revenue fell 39.1% compared to January of the previous year. Products subject to additional tariffs registered an average decrease of 26.7%, with particular emphasis on goods classified under Section 232, which fell 38.3%.
Among the items with the greatest negative impact are semi-finished iron or steel products, juices, inorganic chemical elements, and petroleum-derived fuels.
“The beginning of 2026 continues to be marked by significant pressures on bilateral trade. The combination of falling Brazilian exports and the maintenance of high tariffs, especially on industrial goods, has deepened the imbalance in the trade balance between Brazil and the United States,” says Abrão Neto, president of Amcham Brazil.
Products subject to higher taxes increase contraction.
Analysis of the set of goods affected by additional tariffs indicates that the drop was greater than the overall average. Products subject to surcharges of 40% and 50% registered a significant decrease, as did items linked to Section 232, especially copper and steel products.
The move reinforces the trend observed in previous months, with the maintenance of tariff barriers putting pressure on bilateral flows.
Partial resilience in the export agenda
Despite the adverse scenario, part of the export agenda showed relatively more robust performance. Among the ten main products shipped to the United States in January, six performed better than Brazilian exports to the rest of the world. This is the case for unroasted coffee, beef, aircraft, pulp, and engineering equipment.
Conversely, products that lost market share in the US showed superior performance when destined for other countries, signaling a geographical reorientation of foreign sales.
Even with the increase in the United States' global trade deficit in goods, Brazil remains among the few countries with which the Americans maintain a significant trade surplus. "Advancing high-level economic dialogue is essential to restore predictability, reduce barriers, and create conditions for the resumption of trade flows throughout 2026," concludes Abrão Neto.
