NOAA confirms El Niño and Paraná may face excessive rainfall in the coming months.

Confirmation of El Niño's return has raised the alert for a wetter second half of the year in Paraná. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported this Thursday (11) that the conditions of the phenomenon are already present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and should gain intensity over the next few months, with a peak expected between spring and summer 2026/2027.

Indicators show that sea surface temperatures have remained more than 0.5°C above average since May. Warming is also observed in the deeper layers of the ocean, in the first 200 meters, a condition considered fundamental for the maintenance and strengthening of the climatic phenomenon.

According to meteorologist Reinaldo Kneib, from Simepar, the changes already observed in the Pacific are beginning to modify global atmospheric circulation. “The direction of the winds in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region, which was from east to west, has begun to change to the opposite direction, bringing warm waters from Oceania towards western South America. This can further warm the water and change the storm regime in various locations around the planet,” he explains.

Although signs of the phenomenon are already present, the official characterization of El Niño depends on the...

Warming must remain above 0.5°C for at least three consecutive months. This condition is expected to be reached in July. "For this reason, El Niño does not yet directly impact the climate in Paraná, but it could start to have an impact from July onwards. Forecasts from the main climate monitoring centers in the world converge on rainfall above the monthly average until December in Paraná, being significantly above average during the spring," Kneib points out.

International projections indicate a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño between November and January. If this scenario is confirmed, the event could be among the most intense ever recorded since the beginning of the historical series in 1950.

Rainy spring forecast

NOAA's assessment is supported by other international climate monitoring centers. This week, an update released by the European Copernicus system compiled projections produced by institutions in Australia, England, France, Germany, the United States, Japan, and Canada.

The result points to a similar scenario: a strong to very strong El Niño and a continuation of the trend of above-average rainfall in Paraná until the end of the year.

Given this scenario, state agencies are already intensifying preventive measures aimed at reducing the impacts of possible extreme events. Since March, the State Civil Defense Coordination has expanded the monitoring and preparedness of municipalities through its ten Regional Action Centers.

Among the actions carried out are simulations in risk areas in the municipalities of Morretes and Antonina, on the coast, in addition to

meetings with mayors and regional coordinators to review disaster response strategies.

Municipalities reinforce preventive actions.

The measures considered a priority include dredging rivers and streams, updating contingency plans, mapping vulnerable areas, registering shelters, and structuring municipal funds to expedite transfers in emergency situations.

Over the past two years, the State Fund for Public Calamities (Fecap) has allocated R$16 million for preventive drainage works and bridge reconstruction in Londrina, Guaratuba, and Espigão Alto do Iguaçu.

With the approach of spring, a period when the effects of El Niño are usually more evident in the Southern Region, climate models continue to be monitored to update projections and identify possible areas of greater risk in the State.