EN 
PT_BR 
The market of rice Mercosur enters the 2026/27 cycle with attention focused on the potential climatic effects on production, quality, and prices. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst of the supply chain... riceA very strong El Niño can increase risks for crops even where increased rainfall expands water availability.
The analysis highlights that NOAA indicates a probability of over 90% for a very strong El Niño between the second half of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. From October to December, the chance of the phenomenon reaching historical intensity is 69%, surpassing events recorded since 1950.
In southern Brazil and other areas of Mercosur, more rain does not necessarily mean a better harvest. In irrigated rice in Rio Grande do Sul, excess rainfall can delay crop preparation and planting, as well as increase the risk of disease and operational difficulties. At harvest, high humidity can affect grain quality and access to the fields.
Cardoso believes that El Niño doesn't need to cause a major crop failure to influence prices. Lower quality, losses, delays, increased logistics costs, and transportation difficulties can already alter the relationship between supply and demand.
Monitoring should also consider Santa Catarina, Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay, since Mercosur functions as an integrated supply system. Another factor is carryover stock, which can cushion the impact of weather difficulties when high or amplify price reactions when more balanced.
The focus, therefore, shifts not only to how much it will rain, but also where, when, with what intensity, and at what stage the crops will be. It is still too early to talk about crop failure, but climate risk is already on the radar of the 2026/27 rice market.