Delays in fertilizer deliveries raise concerns about the next harvest.

The delay in fertilizer imports raises a red flag for the supply of the next harvest, especially in a scenario of higher costs and squeezed margins in the field. According to Rabobank, the increased volatility in the global market since March, amid the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, has been particularly affecting the market. Urea and Match and led producers to postpone fertilizer purchases.

Urea is the biggest concern due to its importance in planting the next second corn crop. Between January and July 2026, imports totaled 2.33 million tons, about 25% below the 3.07 million tons recorded in the same period of 2025. Even with record monthly volumes between August and December, the total imported for the year would still be approximately 5% below that observed in 2025.

When converted to total nitrogen volume, imports of nitrogen fertilizers are approximately 20% lower than last year, while other fertilizers only compensate for a small part of the deficit. For phosphorus, the decline is 9%, and MAP purchases are approximately 21% lower. Conversely, imports of Triple Superphosphate exceed 1.5 million tons, a volume equivalent to 90% of the total acquired in 2025.

The scenario gains relevance given the need for financial recovery among producers. Default rates remain high, while concerns about the weather reinforce the importance of well-nourished crops to preserve productivity. For the new soybean crop, higher costs are expected, with margins pressured by another cycle. The projection for fertilizer deliveries in Brazil remains at 45.1 million tons.

Title Options: Fertilizer Delay Raises Alert for New Harvest; Lower Imports Pressure Fertilizer Market; Urea Focuses Concern Ahead of Next Harvest; Higher Costs Keep Agricultural Margins Under Pressure; Fertilizer Deliveries Remain on the Field's Radar.