EN 
PT_BR 
THE soy Prices began this Friday, September 18th, with declines in Chicago, driven by soybean meal prices, while the market focuses its attention on the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping scheduled for next week. According to an analysis by Grão Direto, the meeting once again places Chinese agricultural demand among the main points being monitored by the market.
In Brazil, the decline observed this morning in Chicago is not expected to be replicated to the same extent in domestic markets. Grainsights, the market intelligence arm of Grão Direto, indicates that export premiums remain firm, while exchange rates and active demand from trading companies have helped to support domestic benchmarks in the face of external fluctuations.
In Água Boa, in eastern Mato Grosso, the average FOB price of soybeans reached R$ 142.21 per sack on Thursday, September 17th. At the end of August, references were close to R$ 134/sack, representing a gain of almost R$ 8/sack in just over three weeks. The Grainsights survey also points to a basis for October 2026 of around -62 ¢/bu.
The analysis links this difference to the geographical location of Água Boa, situated in a Cerrado region further from export corridors and, therefore, with a lower basis than that observed in markets in the south-central region of Mato Grosso. According to the analysis, the evolution of exchange rates and freight costs may alter the arbitrage opportunities associated with this logistical difference.
In the international market, the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping is expected to be the focus of attention next week. Information from Grainsights indicates expectations of an extension of the bilateral trade truce, which expires in November, while the market is monitoring the possibility of announcements involving Chinese agricultural purchases in the United States, including soybeans, corn, and sorghum.
Harvest conditions in the U.S. Midwest also remain on the radar. Grainsights monitoring reports that rainfall has hampered work, with unstable weather forecast for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest until early next week and a risk of localized flooding. The USDA's weekly export report, planting progress in Brazil, and China's stance on soybean purchases complete the main points being monitored by the market.
