EN 
PT_BR 
A new analysis conducted by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) indicates that for every 5% increase in the price of diesel, the operational cost of road freight rises approximately 1.5% for rural producers. In Mato Grosso, where road transport plays a fundamental role in the flow of agricultural production, the rise in fuel prices raises an alert regarding the logistical costs of the 2026/27 harvest.
Imea's logistics analyst, Ébila Ferreira, explains that from January to October of this year, diesel accumulated an estimated increase between 15% and 20%. Considering a variation of 15%, the calculated impact on the operational cost of transportation reaches 4.5%. This increase, however, has not yet been fully reflected in the prices practiced in the state's freight market.
“Today, diesel accounts for 30% of the total operational cost of freight. When the price of fuel increases by 5%, this results in an increase of 1.5% in the operational cost of transportation for the producer,” explains Ébila.
According to the analyst, the concern lies in the coming months, when the 26/27 harvest and the outflow of soybeans are expected to increase the demand for trucks. Given this scenario, transporters may seek to pass on some of the accumulated costs, putting pressure on the logistics expenses of rural producers.
Fuel pressure is already reflected in costs on farms. In the 26/27 crop season, diesel expenses for mechanized soybean operations in Mato Grosso, which include sowing, applications, and harvesting, are estimated at R$ 198.59 per hectare, an increase of 23.8% compared to the previous crop season.
Currently, diesel accounts for 4.59% of crop costs. This percentage already exceeds the average of 3.82% recorded in the last five harvests and corresponds to the highest value in the historical series considered by Imea.
Furthermore, fuel accounts for approximately 27% of the increase in soybean production costs from one harvest to the next, highlighting its influence on the formation of production costs.
"The rise in fuel prices has also intensified in the short term. Between September and October alone, the increase was approximately 61% of the daily fuel cost, increasing the pressure on costs for both agricultural activity and transportation," says the analyst from Imea.
Despite the estimated increase in operating costs of 4.5%, considering the 15% rise in diesel prices, the average freight rates in Mato Grosso remained equivalent when comparing January to October.
According to Imea, this occurs because the price of transportation also depends on other factors, such as the seasonality of grain movement and market conditions. Therefore, the increase in fuel costs does not automatically translate into an immediate and proportional adjustment in the price charged for the service.
The expectation is that this scenario may change with the intensification of the soybean harvest and outflow. With the increased demand for transportation, the market tends to offer a greater margin for transporters to pass on part of the higher operating costs.
"When the soybean harvest and outflow begin, the freight cost may reflect these diesel price increases that have been happening now," assesses the analyst from Imea.
How has the diesel subsidy to producers been?
The subsidy of R$ 2.12 per liter, extended this week, helps to contain some of the rise in diesel prices, reducing pressure that could be even greater on the sector's costs. However, Imea highlights that the duration of the benefit is a point of attention for agriculture, especially if the end of the subsidy coincides with the important harvest period.
“This subsidy helps to delay the effects we may face later. The concern is whether it will continue during the soybean harvest and transportation period, when freight costs naturally tend to be higher,” says Ébila.
If the benefit is not in effect during this period, any further increase in diesel prices could raise carriers' operating costs and increase pressure for freight rate adjustments.
