Soybean prices surge in the international market, and weather puts pressure on the Brazilian harvest.

Soybean prices registered strong gains in the international market in October and early November, driven by the trade agreement between the United States and China. According to data from Itaú BBA Agro, the commodity opened October quoted at US$10.13 per bushel and closed the month at US$10.99, accumulating a gain of 9%. In the first half of November, the average reached US$11.09 per bushel, an increase of 7.5% over October, with the expectation that China will acquire 12 million tons this year and 25 million in the next three years.

In Brazil, however, the international price increase was not fully reflected in producer prices. Premiums for the 2025/26 crop fell, maintaining export parity in Mato Grosso at around R$ 105 per sack. In the spot market, prices fell slightly, with the sack in Sorriso trading at R$ 119 (-1%).

Soybean planting is progressing slower than expected due to irregular rainfall, with the greatest delays in Goiás, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Tocantins. Isolated cases of replanting have been reported in Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Maranhão, and Paraná. Despite the climatic challenges, projections indicate national production close to 178 million tons for the 2025/26 crop, maintaining favorable prospects for the country.