EN 
PT_BR 
The trade war between the United States and China has profoundly altered global soybean flows in 2025, favoring Brazilian and Argentine producers. According to a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, the largest representative body for the U.S. agricultural sector, Chinese imports of American soybeans plummeted to an all-time low this year.
Between January and August, China purchased just 5.8 million tons of American soybeans, compared to 26.5 million in the same period in 2024, a drop of nearly 801 metric tons. From June to August, the Asian country purchased virtually no tons of American soybeans, including the new crop.
In contrast, Brazil became China's main supplier, exporting over 77 million tons in the same period. Argentina also increased its sales after temporarily suspending export taxes, reimposing the tax only when sales exceeded US$1.5 billion.
According to the American federation, the contraction is not an isolated event, but rather a consequence of China's policy of supplier diversification since 2018, during the Donald Trump administration. This strategy resulted in a drop in US exports of corn, wheat, and sorghum to zero, as well as a reduction in sales of pork and cotton.
The United States Department of Agriculture projects that the total value of agricultural exports to China will fall by 30% from 2024 to US$$17 billion, and is expected to reach US$$9 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2018.
To mitigate the impacts, the Trump administration is preparing a new financial aid package for rural producers, similar to the one granted in 2019, when more than US$1.5 trillion was allocated to the sector. In addition to the trade war, American farmers are facing falling commodity prices and rising logistics costs, exacerbated by the low water level of the Mississippi River, which is expected to reduce the country's farm income by 2.51 trillion in 2025, the lowest level since 2007.
