Soybean profitability remains positive even with higher costs

A recent survey by Datagro Grãos indicates that, despite underperformance compared to 2024/25, gross profitability of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 is expected to remain largely positive. This reflects the combination of production costs, productivity, and expected revenue, which sustain relatively favorable gross margins for producers.

Initially, there was a notable increase in costs—especially in Mato Grosso, Paraná, and Goiás—after two consecutive years of contraction. In addition to the increase in spending on inputs (seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides), exchange rate fluctuations made foreign purchases more expensive, putting pressure on results.

Photo: Shutterstock

In terms of productivity, estimates point to good yields, supported by the regular use of technology and relatively stable weather conditions, even with the possibility of a weak La Niña. Of note is the recovery in average productivity in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul, areas severely affected by the lack of rainfall in 2024/25. In the other states, a slight decline is expected, but still above the historical average – allowing some dilution of the high costs per hectare.

Finally, on the revenue side, Datagro estimates that oilseed prices will remain under pressure in 2025/26, at a lower level than this year, limiting producers' gross profits. The decline reflects the prospect of full harvests in the US and Brazil, leading the global market to record its fourth consecutive surplus.

Consequently, gross profitability is projected, still initially, to be 46% in western Paraná (x 47% in 2024/25), 17% in southern Mato Grosso (x 29% in 2024/25) and 25% in southwestern Goiás (x 46% in 2024/25). Recoveries are expected in northern Rio Grande do Sul (25% in 2025/26 x -7% in 2024/25) and southern Mato Grosso do Sul (21% in 2025/26 x 13% in 2024/25).