Rice price increase in Chicago catches analyst's attention.

The appreciation of rice Trading on the Chicago Board of Trade during the American harvest season has reinforced attention on the behavior of supply and prices in the international market. According to Sergio Cardoso, an analyst of the supply chain... riceThis movement gains relevance because it occurs at a time of smaller harvests in the United States, the prospect of El Niño, expectations of reduced acreage in Mercosur, and a recovery in prices in Brazil.

The Nov/26 paddy rice contract reached US$ 16.313 per cwt, up 1.83% on the day. For Cardoso, more important than the variation of a single session is the fact that the price increase occurred during the American harvest, a period in which the arrival of the crop normally increases the physical availability of the product.

The curve of traded contracts also reinforces this interpretation. Nov/26 appears at US$ 16,325 per cwt, while Jan/27 reaches US$ 16,780 and Mar/27, US$ 16,950. In practice, the market is paying more for the first months of 2027, a sign that is noteworthy given the current supply context.

Cardoso emphasizes that Chicago does not determine the price of Brazilian rice, since the national market has its own fundamentals, costs, exchange rates, and commercial dynamics. Even so, the combination of lower American production, price recovery in Brazil, possible reduction in planted area in Mercosur, climate risks, and price increases in Chicago during the US harvest creates a scenario that deserves monitoring. According to the analyst, the main point is to observe whether Chicago is confirming a more balanced supply movement, a perception that is also beginning to appear in the regional market.