EN 
PT_BR 
Heavy rains in southern Brazil have reignited interest in the relationship between El Niño and the reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the Pacific. This assessment comes from Sergio Cardoso, an analyst in the [unclear/segment - context needed]. ricewhich points to the South Pacific Convergence Zone, or SPCZ, as one of the elements that help to understand this scenario.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is an extensive band of cloudiness, convection, and rainfall that diagonally crosses the tropical South Pacific. Its behavior responds to changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation and may indicate alterations in the coupling between these two systems.
Based on the analysis, it is not possible to state that the ZCPS directly caused the torrential rains observed in northern Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. The meteorological systems that acted on the region were the immediate cause of the event. The issue, however, lies in the broader effects of the Pacific circulation.
During El Niño events, this reorganization can modify jet streams, moisture transport, and the trajectory of weather systems, favoring periods of higher rainfall in southern Brazil, Uruguay, and parts of Argentina.
The topic gains importance with the implementation of the 2026/27 crop season. In the western border region of Rio Grande do Sul, planting has progressed so far without such a clear manifestation of the rains associated with El Niño, but the episodes recorded further north reinforce the need for monitoring.
For the rice supply chain, the analysis also broadens the focus beyond Niño 3.4. Indicators such as SOI, MJO, ZCPS, subtropical jet stream, rainfall frequency, and sunlight in October and November are now under scrutiny. The coming weeks should show whether the signs of El Niño are beginning to appear more clearly in the region's atmosphere.
