Global wheat harvest for 2025/26 is expected to be a record, according to Cepea.

Global wheat production in the 2025/26 crop year is expected to be a record, exceeding the previous season's production by more than 42 million tons, according to an analysis by Cepea based on USDA data.

The forecast is that the global harvest will reach 842.17 million tons, while consumption is estimated at 823.9 million tons.

This scenario should increase ending inventories and the inventory-to-consumption ratio. In Brazil, researchers explain that, even with lower supply, the drop in consumption and exports should lead to the July 2026 carryover inventory reaching its highest level since July 2019, according to Conab.

Brazilian production for 2025 was estimated at 7.873 million tons, 1.1% below the December projection and 0.2% lower than that of 2024.