EN 
PT_BR 
The next world supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is awaited with mixed expectations. soy and cornAccording to an analysis by Grão Direto, projections indicate an increase in ending inventories of corn, even in the face of a possible reduction in production, while the soy Global production and stocks could decline in the 2026/27 crop year. These figures are part of estimates preceding the official release of the WASDE report.
Grainsights, the market intelligence arm of Grain DirectIt is estimated that global ending stocks of corn could reach 275.43 million tons, an increase of 3.33 million tons compared to the previous projection. At the same time, global production is estimated at 1.287 billion tons, a decrease of 3.46 million tons. In the United States, production is expected to reach 399.36 million tons, a decrease of 1.97 million tons, while ending stocks could rise by 3.04 million tons, reaching 42.83 million tons.
The projected increase in US corn stocks is mainly related to expectations of larger initial volumes. Therefore, even with a possible reduction in productivity and production, the survey points to greater availability of the grain. In South America, projections remain stable, with production estimated at 139 million tons for Brazil and 55 million tons for Argentina.
For soybeans, the expected scenario is different. Grainsights' analysis points to global production of 441.67 million tons, a reduction of 680,000 tons compared to the previous estimate. Global ending stocks may decrease by 450,000 tons, reaching 123.57 million tons. On the other hand, global exports are projected at 191.87 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons, with expectations of greater participation from Argentina and Canada.
In the United States, the market expects slight negative adjustments in soybean productivity and production. The estimate is for a harvest of 123.31 million tons, a reduction of 110,000 tons, while ending stocks may fall by 160,000 tons, reaching 8.27 million tons. If these projections are confirmed, the American soybean balance will show lower stocks than previously anticipated.
For Brazil and Argentina, Grainsights' monitoring shows no changes in soybean production estimates. The Brazilian crop remains projected at 186 million tons, with exports of 118 million tons and ending stocks of 36.89 million tons. In Argentina, the expectation is for production of 50 million tons, exports of 6.45 million tons, and ending stocks of 24.47 million tons.
Projections compiled by Grainsights show that the market is awaiting the new WASDE with expectations of greater corn availability and reduced soybean stocks. The official USDA release will allow us to verify whether the numbers confirm the estimates monitored by the sector or if there will be differences compared to the projected scenario.
