EN 
PT_BR 
Despite the notification of avian flu at the end of the third week of the month, which should be reflected more in June's figures, May saw an improvement in the poultry spread, given the reduction in costs. Chicken meat exports grew 9.5% in the year to April, helping to sustain prices and, even with firm prices, poultry remained relatively cheap compared to beef forequarters.
Prices for whole frozen chicken in São Paula remained firm in May, with a monthly average up to the 21st of R$ 8.67/kg, stable compared to April. Specifically this week, the penultimate week of May and the first after the notification of the case of avian flu on a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul, prices fell by 1.3%, a normal variation and not necessarily related to the event, which is very recent.
Photo: Jonathan Campos
From a margin perspective, May saw an improvement in the spread we calculated for slaughtered chicken, due to the drop in corn prices, as the spot market for the cereal eased, pricing a robust second crop. As a result, the estimated production cost for poultry farming fell by 3.6% (partial up to the 21st) while poultry prices stabilized, bringing the indicator to 45%, slightly higher than the 38% in May 2024 and the historical average of 35%. From the perspective of the price ratio between chicken meat and beef forequarter, poultry remained competitive in May, despite a slight drop in the ratio, with the reduction in beef carcass this month, from 2.38 to 2.32 kg of chicken/kg of forequarter, compared to an average since 2010 of 2.06.
A year ago, this ratio was much more unfavorable to chicken, given that cattle prices were depressed. In other words, while poultry rose 22% in the May 25/24 comparison, forequarter meat became 43% more expensive. The last time this ratio was above 3 kg of chicken/kg of forequarter meat, that is, with poultry extremely competitive, was in February 2022. If the current forequarter meat price remained constant, the ratio would return to this level only if chicken fell 23%.
