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PT_BR 
Brazilian soybean oil is expected to appreciate by more than 5% in 2025, boosting its share of the crushing industry's profit margin, known as oil share, from 38% in the previous year to an average of 49% in September of this year. This scenario reflects structural changes in the market and increased purchases by the biodiesel sector, consolidating a new revenue pattern between oil and meal.
Photo: Claudio Neves
According to experts, the rising price dynamics of soybean oil have put pressure on crushing margins, especially given the strong Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans. The absence of a trade agreement between China and the United States keeps demand high, with volume still to be acquired for processing between December and February. This scenario tends to sustain high prices in Brazil and reduce the domestic supply of soybean oil, impacting the cost of biodiesel.
In addition to market factors, US President Donald Trump's announcement of additional tariffs of 100% on imported Chinese goods reignites the trade dispute between the two powers, adding uncertainty to global trade flows.
Regarding soybean meal, analysts warn that premiums should be monitored in the coming weeks, as a recovery is possible, but they will still be influenced by rising oil prices and international demand. The combination of these factors highlights a scenario of narrow margins and strategic adjustments for the Brazilian industrial sector.
