EN 
PT_BR 
Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 crop year could reach 179.5 million tons, according to a revised estimate by the international market consultancy Hedgepoint Global Markets, reinforcing the scenario of a new national record. This volume surpasses the previous projection of 178 million tons and reflects a more favorable productivity outlook in the main producing regions.
The review considers improvements in planted areas and expected average yields, driven by largely positive weather conditions throughout the cycle, especially from December 2025 onwards. The analysis incorporates, among other indicators, recent data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which signal good crop development in the main producing states.
Photo: Jaelson Lucas
In Rio Grande do Sul, after three consecutive harvests marked by adverse weather conditions, soybean production is showing significant recovery in 2025/26, with high NDVI levels. The recovery in productivity in the state is cited as one of the most relevant factors for the increase in the national estimate and for consolidating the record.
Meanwhile, Mato Grosso and Paraná, the two largest producers in the country, continue to experience favorable weather conditions and robust vegetation levels, supporting positive yield expectations. The same scenario is observed in Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, and Bahia, which also register high NDVI levels, indicating widespread productive potential.
Soybean harvesting began at a faster pace at the start of this season. By January 16th, approximately 31% of the national area had already been harvested, a percentage higher than the 1.11% recorded in the same period last year and close to the historical average of 2.71% of the national area. Despite planting delays in September and October, there is no indication, so far, of significant impacts on productivity.
Photo: Gilson Abreu
Weather forecasts remain favorable for the progress of the harvest. In the short term, between January 21st and 27th, more intense rainfall is expected in the Central-North region of the country, which may temporarily limit the progress of harvesters in Mato Grosso. Conversely, the South and Southeast regions should register lower rainfall volumes, favoring the pace of work, especially in Paraná.
For February, the forecast indicates below-average rainfall in the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast regions, a scenario that tends to contribute to a smoother harvest in the central part of the country. In the South, the expectation of above-average moisture should benefit Rio Grande do Sul, reinforcing the recovery of crops. In the Northeast, monitoring remains necessary, as some areas were sown later and still depend on good water availability for yield consolidation.
