Frosts in the South have a low impact on the second corn crop.

Corn-producing areas in the second crop have not yet registered significant impacts from the frosts observed in recent days in southern Brazil, according to an analysis by EarthDaily. Monitoring indicates that, despite the sharp drop in temperatures in parts of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, the events were localized and of low intensity, without significant potential to compromise production.

Photo: Disclosure

Comparing the last 30 and 10 days, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul recorded average temperatures between 3°C and 5°C below normal, reflecting the presence of a more intense cold air mass over the region. Despite this, evidence suggests that the frosts that occurred between southeastern Mato Grosso do Sul and western Paraná were of low intensity. “This scenario favored the occurrence of isolated frosts, especially in higher altitude and lowland regions. So far, however, the evidence indicates that the event occurred with low intensity, without the potential to cause significant damage to state production,” explains Felippe Reis, crop analyst at EarthDaily.

In Mato Grosso, the main national producer of second-crop corn, the Non-Destructive Varietal Index (NDVI), an indicator used to assess the vigor and health of crops, shows satisfactory progress in most of the state, with the exception of the southeast, where late planting still limits the development of the areas. Above-average soil moisture also favors the continued development of the crops.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the scenario is also considered very good. The NDVI shows the highest values compared to recent years, indicating good productive potential. Soil moisture, which is already high, should remain above average, favoring crop development in the short term.

Photo: Courtesy of Unesp

On the other hand, in Goiás, the NDVI shows similar behavior to that observed in 2021, a year marked by a significant crop failure. Although current levels are above those recorded in that period, the persistence of below-average moisture since mid-March reinforces the risk of production losses if the dry pattern continues in the coming weeks.

In Paraná, the NDVI has shown favorable trends in recent weeks, reflecting the positive response of crops to the return of rains and increased soil moisture. The trend of above-average moisture should continue to support vegetative development in the areas in the short term.

The ECMWF and GFS climate models continue to indicate below-average temperatures in the short term for the Southern Region, areas of the Southeast, and Mato Grosso do Sul, maintaining the risk of new episodes of more intense cold and reinforcing the need for constant monitoring of producing areas.