Consulting firm warns producers about soybean sales.

The possibility of a drop in prices of soy This requires attention to sales decisions and the costs of maintaining inventory in the coming months. According to TF Agroeconômica's weekly analysis, producers should stagger sales and take advantage of any potential price recoveries to sell portions of the harvest, without betting the entire production on a future price increase.

The short-term outlook is bearish, pressured by the progress of the harvest in the United States, the slowdown in US crushing, and the expectation of greater Brazilian supply. Conab projects 181.62 million tons in the 2026/27 crop year. However, Chinese purchases and reduced soybean oil stocks in the United States may limit the declines.

Before negotiating, it is recommended to calculate the minimum selling price, including production costs, rent, financing, freight, and storage. It is also important to monitor the dollar, export premiums, and regional demand, as Chicago alone does not determine the price received in the field.

Holding onto grain only pays off when the expected appreciation outweighs interest, quality losses, and other costs. Forward contracts, futures, and options can help protect margins, provided they are compatible with projected production and the farmer's financial capacity.

For cooperatives and grain companies, the guidance is to avoid excessive inventories, control margins, and diversify buyers. Exporters should assess Brazilian competitiveness and distinguish between contracted Chinese sales and actual shipments. Crushing industries, in turn, are advised to stagger purchases and calculate margins considering the prices of oil and meal.

According to the consulting firm, combining gradual sales, cost control, and monitoring of exchange rates offers more security than relying on a recovery in international prices.