The market projects an increase in wheat stocks and a loss of market share for the US in global exports.

The international market projects a slight increase in wheat stocks for the 2025/26 season, both in the United States and globally. Expectations indicate that US stocks should rise to 23.8 million tons, an increase of 3.71 TP4T compared to the previous month (23 million tons).

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The increase would be driven by a reduction in US exports, which are losing market share globally in the face of growing sales from Russia, a country expected to expand its production and gain competitiveness with lower prices.

Globally, projections indicate ending stocks of 265.7 million tons, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previously estimated 264.1 million tons.

According to Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets, the movement indicates a slightly downward trend for wheat. "The expected increases in stocks, both in the United States and globally, reinforce a scenario of greater supply and less dynamism in US exports," he assesses.

Therefore, the market should maintain a cautious tone, monitoring the evolution of Russian exports and the behavior of global demand throughout the new agricultural cycle.