EN 
PT_BR 
With a renewed surge in agribusiness in the third quarter, the already significant GDP growth forecast for the soybean and biodiesel supply chain for 2025 has undergone another positive revision. In the crushing segment, the result was in line with the improved outlook for the year indicated by Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries). In the case of biodiesel, the movement was driven by the acceleration of production observed in the third quarter, associated with the introduction of B15 on August 1st.
Given this, studies conducted by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), from Esalq/USP, in partnership with Abiove, indicate that the GDP of the soybean and biodiesel chain could grow significantly by 11,66% in 2025. The current estimate exceeds that of the previous report by 0.37 percentage points, reflecting the advancement of agribusiness and its positive impact on the agricultural services of the chain.
Photo: Disclosure/OPR Archive
Overall, the record 2024/25 soybean harvest in Brazil and the intensification of grain processing by the industry are supporting the forecast of strong growth in the GDP of the soybean and biodiesel chain in 2025. With this, the GDP of the production chain would represent 23% of the agribusiness GDP this year and 5.7% of the national GDP.
Despite this performance, according to researchers at Cepea/Abiove, with further price drops in the third quarter, the variation in relative prices became negative for the production chain. Between January and September of 2024 and 2025, prices in the production chain fell by 7.27% – a worsening compared to the previous estimate, which pointed to stability. This deterioration in the third quarter resulted exclusively from the sharp price increases observed in the same period of 2024, since, in general, there was a price increase throughout the third quarter of 2025 – thus characterizing a base-of-comparison effect. This movement also led to a reduction in the estimated growth in income for the soybean and biodiesel chain, although the expansion of production volumes still ensures growth. The current estimate indicates an increase of 3.54% in the chain's income in 2025, reversing a sequence of three consecutive years of decline. Nevertheless, this projection was revised downwards for the second time in the third quarter (it was +11,19% in the previous report).
Based on information gathered up to the end of the third quarter of 2025, it is estimated that the GDP generated per ton of soybeans produced and processed could represent 4.2 times the GDP generated by soybeans produced and exported directly.
Job market
There was an increase of 7.15% in the number of people employed in the soybean and biodiesel production chain in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year, totaling 2.39 million workers. As a result, the production chain's share of the Brazilian economy was 2.34% and, in agribusiness, 10.35%.
According to researchers from Cepea/Abiove, the increase in employment during the quarter – reflecting performance throughout 2025 – was mainly due to increases recorded before the farm gate and in agricultural services.
The increased area dedicated to soybean cultivation and the growing use of technology led the agricultural inputs segment to register a 7,09% increase in the number of people employed, representing approximately 10,000 additional workers. In agricultural services, the growth was 12,08%, associated with the increase in physical production and processing of soybeans, which expands the demand for services and stimulates the labor market in this segment.
On the other hand, within the farm gate and in agribusiness, the scenario was one of reduced employment. In soybeans, there was a decrease of 30,291 employed people (-6,98%), with a decline observed in most producing states, indicating gains in labor productivity. The significant job loss in Rio Grande do Sul (-26,655 people) stands out, due to a crop failure caused by weather conditions. In agribusiness, the feed and crushing/refining industries reduced their employment, and the small increase observed in the biodiesel industry was not enough to reverse the overall result for the sector.
Foreign trade
Brazilian exports of soybeans and biodiesel totaled 35.54 million tons in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of 11.781% compared to the same quarter of 2024. With the growth in shipped volumes, revenue became positive in the quarterly comparison: +4.471%, reaching US$14.5 billion in the period. The more moderate increase in revenue compared to the growth in volumes reflects the lower export prices of soybeans and soybean meal.
Photo: Claudio Neves
Pressure on export prices for grain and bran stemmed from the ample supply of these products in the international market, despite strong demand. For 2025/26, projections indicate a change in the trend of global availability, with expectations of a decline in production.
In the case of soybeans, the increase in shipments was mainly driven by China and Southeast Asia. For soybean meal, the European Union and East Asia stood out as destinations with growth. However, in the case of soybean oil, due to strong domestic demand, there was a reduction in export volumes, with declines particularly in China and the "other destinations" group.
