EN 
PT_BR 
New projections released by the National Supply Company (Conab) for the 2025/26 corn crop have increased the perception of a comfortable supply in the Brazilian market and contributed to slowing down negotiations in recent weeks. This assessment comes from researchers at the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), who observe that buyers are more hesitant in anticipation of further price declines.
Photo: Jonas Oliveira/Seab
According to Conab, the estimate for the first corn crop has been revised to 28.46 million tons. This volume represents an increase of 141 TP4T compared to the previous cycle and an advance of 21 TP4T compared to the report released in April. The increase in production is attributed to the expansion of cultivated area and productivity gains recorded in most of the country's producing regions.
With the prospect of greater availability of the grain, some consumers have indicated that they have sufficient stocks to meet demand in the coming weeks, a factor that reduces the need for immediate purchases. According to Cepea, this scenario has led market participants to wait for more significant price declines before closing new deals.
Another factor contributing to the more cautious stance of buyers is the high volume of carryover inventory at the start of the 2025/26 season. Researchers at the Research Center highlight that current levels are among the highest recorded in recent years, reinforcing the feeling of comfortable supply in the domestic market.
On the supply side, sellers are monitoring the downward pressure on prices and the partial occupancy of warehouses, which are still receiving remaining volumes from previous harvests and products from the current soybean and summer corn harvest. Given this context, producers and other agents have adopted greater flexibility in negotiations, adjusting prices and payment terms to stimulate sales.
