EN 
PT_BR 
The weather forecast of National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) This indicates irregular rainfall distribution across Brazil in January 2026. Above-average rainfall volumes are predicted (blue tones in Figure 1a) across the North Region, the western part of the Central-West Region, and extending into the South Region. Conversely, areas in the south-central Northeast Region, the north-central Southeast Region, and the eastern portion of the Central-West Region are expected to experience below-average rainfall (yellow tones in Figure 1).
Regarding the Northern Region, rainfall volumes up to 50 mm above the historical average are expected in much of Amazonas, Acre, Amapá, Rondônia, and the southern and north-central portions of Pará. In other areas of the region, the forecast indicates values close to or below the climatological average, mainly in south-central Tocantins and southern Roraima, where the lowest volumes may occur.
For the Northeast region, rainfall below the historical average for January is expected in practically all of Bahia, south-central Piauí, the central region of Maranhão, and western Pernambuco. On the other hand, rainfall above the historical average is expected in isolated areas of Paraíba, Alagoas, Ceará, Piauí, and Maranhão.
Regarding the Central-West Region, rainfall volumes above average are expected in practically the entire state of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, as well as areas in the northeast and southwest of Goiás. In the rest of the region, rainfall is expected to be near or below average.
For the Southeast Region, the forecast indicates above-average rainfall across virtually the entire state of São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais. Conversely, below-average rainfall is expected in southern Espírito Santo, north-central Rio de Janeiro state, and much of Minas Gerais. In other areas of the region, accumulated rainfall is expected to remain close to the climatological average.
For the Southern Region, rainfall totals of up to 50 mm above the historical average for January are expected in practically all states. Exceptions occur in the central-west of Santa Catarina and the south of Rio Grande do Sul, where volumes are expected to be close to and below the climatological average for the month, respectively.
Temperature
The forecast indicates that temperatures should be above average in almost the entire country (shades of yellow, orange, and red on the map in Figure 2). For the Northern Region, average temperatures are expected to be up to 0.6 °C above average in most of the states of Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, and Roraima, where average temperatures tend to be between 26 and 28 °C in January. For the state of Tocantins, more intense warming is expected, with temperatures up to 1 °C above the climatological average for January.
In the Northeast region, temperatures are expected to be above average in all states, especially in Bahia, Piauí, and southern Maranhão. Southern Piauí is particularly noteworthy, with an average increase of over 1°C predicted. In other areas, temperatures are expected to be within the average range.
In the Central-West Region, average temperatures above the climatological average for the month are expected to prevail, with greater warming in the central-eastern part of Goiás, the Federal District, the central-western part of Mato Grosso do Sul, and the northwestern part of Mato Grosso, where average temperatures may be up to 1 °C above the climatological average for January.
For the Southeast Region, an increase in average temperature is expected in most of Minas Gerais (with greater warming in the northwest of the state) and in the western and northeastern portions of São Paulo. In the remaining areas of the region, average temperatures are expected to be close to the climatological average.
In the Southern Region, temperatures may be near average in most of Santa Catarina and southern Rio Grande do Sul. On the other hand, an average increase of up to 0.6 °C is expected in much of Rio Grande do Sul, northern Santa Catarina, and east-central Paraná.
Figure 1: Precipitation anomaly forecast from the INMET climate model for the month of January 2026.
Figure 2: Forecast of average air temperature anomalies from the INMET climate model, for the month of January 2026.
Possible impacts on agricultural crops
In the Northern Region, the forecast of above-average rainfall in much of Amazonas, Acre, Amapá, Rondônia, and areas of Pará tends to favor soil moisture replenishment, sowing and vegetative development of first-crop plantings, and pasture recovery. However, the increase in temperatures, especially in Tocantins, may intensify evapotranspiration and increase the risk of heat stress, requiring greater attention to water management, especially in areas with below-average rainfall forecasts, such as south-central Tocantins and southern Roraima.
In the Northeast region, irregular rainfall is expected to pose significant challenges to agriculture. In areas with below-average rainfall forecasts, such as Bahia, south-central Piauí, central Maranhão, and western Pernambuco, the water deficit combined with above-average temperatures could compromise the sowing and development of rainfed crops, such as corn and beans, especially during their reproductive phases. On the other hand, in areas with above-average rainfall, particularly along the coast and in states like Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte, and Ceará, conditions tend to be more favorable for crop development and irrigated fruit farming.
In the Central-West Region, the above-average rainfall volumes predicted for Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, combined with high temperatures, should favor first-crop cultivation in vegetative development, flowering, and grain filling. However, in Goiás, where rainfall is predicted to be below average, periods of water restriction may occur, increasing the risk of water stress in crops during sensitive stages of the cycle.
In the Southeast region, the forecast of above-average rainfall in São Paulo tends to contribute to adequate soil moisture replenishment, benefiting the development of grain, sugarcane, and coffee crops. Conversely, the forecast of below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, and north-central Rio de Janeiro, combined with higher temperatures, may limit soil water availability and affect the initial development of crops, especially in areas more dependent on rainfall.
In the Southern Region, above-average rainfall accumulations across most of the region, coupled with temperatures near or slightly above average, tend to favor early-stage summer crops. These conditions also contribute to pasture recovery. On the other hand, the forecast of lower rainfall volumes, combined with higher solar radiation in southern Rio Grande do Sul, favors field operations and the development of irrigated rice cultivation.
INMET is an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA) and has represented Brazil at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) since 1950.
