EN 
PT_BR 
The summer of 2026 is expected to be marked by irregular rainfall, periods of drought in the middle of the rainy season, and an increased risk of heat stress in strategic agribusiness areas. This assessment is based on the quarterly climate forecast prepared by Cyan Analytics for the months of January, February, and March, which confirms the presence of the La Niña phenomenon at the beginning of the year and points to additional challenges for crop planning.
According to the analysis, based on data from national and international climate monitoring institutions, rainfall events tend to occur in concentrated bursts over short periods, interspersed with days or even weeks of dry weather, even during the peak of summer. This pattern increases the complexity of agricultural management and amplifies the risks to productivity, logistics, and costs in the field. “It’s not just about more or less rain, but about how and when the rain occurs. Climate irregularity is currently one of the main risk factors for agribusiness,” states agricultural engineer Igor Amarolli.
In the south of the country, good rainfall volumes are expected to continue – Photo: Courtesy of Pixabay
In the south of the country, the projection indicates a pattern that partially deviates from the typical La Niña years. The expectation is for continued good rainfall volumes in January, especially in Paraná, with a localized risk of excessive rainfall.
In the Central-West and Southeast regions, the scenario combines above-average rainfall in some areas with poor distribution throughout the quarter, which can result in consecutive weeks without rain, especially in February.
In the Northeast, the trend is towards drought in the interior, with rainfall more concentrated on the coast and high temperatures, increasing the risk of water stress. Another point of concern is the change in moisture corridors, which should act more in the south of the country, shifting the pattern historically observed between Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso.
In the Northeast, the trend is towards drought in the interior – Photo: Antonio Carlos Mafalda
Regional climate indicators compiled in the survey point to only moderately favorable conditions for agricultural production in the quarter. The South presents the best relative assessment, influenced by more frequent rains at the beginning of the year, while the Northeast concentrates the highest level of risk, associated with the combination of drought and intense heat. The Central-West and Southeast appear in an intermediate position, reflecting the alternation between intense rain and prolonged periods of drought.
The projected scenario reinforces the need for more precise climate planning by producers, with adjustments to planting, harvesting, and input application schedules. The alternation between high humidity and high temperatures also tends to increase the pressure from fungal diseases and pests, requiring increased attention to phytosanitary management.
In an environment of greater climate volatility, continuous monitoring of weather conditions becomes a decisive factor in reducing risks and preserving margins, especially in regions where rainfall irregularities tend to intensify throughout the summer.
