Record US corn harvest puts pressure on market and challenges Brazilian producers

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a record corn harvest for 2025/26, expanding global supply and increasing American stocks. Estimated US production rose from 399 to 425 million tons, with a harvested area of 35.9 million hectares and a yield of 11.9 tons per hectare. Ending stocks rose from 42 to 53.8 million tons, an increase of 27.5% compared to July.

Globally, stocks for the 2025/26 harvest are expected to be close to 280 million tons, while Chinese production is projected at 295 million tons. With increased productivity and the planting of genetically modified corn, the country is maintaining high production and reducing imports, putting pressure on international prices.

In Brazil, producers are holding back corn, expecting a price increase similar to that seen in the second half of 2024. However, overcrowded warehouses and a less favorable exchange rate could limit sales and put pressure on prices. With the soybean harvest expected to begin in January, corn retention capacity is reduced, increasing the prospect of price adjustments by the end of the year.