Positive weather supports soybean stability.

The soybean market remains stable, supported by positive weather prospects in Brazil and Argentina. Even with the development of the La Niña phenomenon, projections indicate good conditions for planting progress and expectations of high productivity in the main producing regions.

In Brazil, the weather outlook remains favorable. In the coming weeks, rainfall is expected to consolidate over the Central-West and part of the Southeast, ensuring good conditions for crop development. Only Rio Grande do Sul requires greater attention due to the possibility of irregular rainfall.

Photo: Disclosure/Faep System

In Argentina, the last few weeks have been marked by significant rainfall, including isolated reports of flooding. Overall, however, the soil is well-supplied with moisture, which should ensure a promising start to planting. If Brazil and Argentina confirm good harvests, the global market is likely to be well-supplied, with record supply.

In the international arena, the recent decision by the United States to impose additional tariffs on Chinese products has reignited trade tensions with the Asian country. The measure, in response to restrictions imposed by Beijing on the export of rare earth elements, could redirect some Chinese demand towards Brazilian soybeans.

This movement tends to raise export premiums in Brazil and, at the same time, put pressure on prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The exchange rate, in turn, should play a decisive role in the formation of domestic prices — an appreciation of the real could push the price below R$100 per sack in Mato Grosso, according to market analyses.