EN 
PT_BR 
The absence of extreme problems and the moderate expansion of the planted area place the 2025/26 soybean crop on a different level from previous ones. The teams of the Harvest Rally, the largest private technical expedition in the country, begin their field activities facing a rare scenario: a harvest that starts normally and with growth potential.
In previous years, right at the beginning of the Rally, the signs of decline were evident: in 2022/23, Rio Grande do Sul showed strong production losses; in 2023/24, Mato Grosso already indicated losses; and, in 2024/25, Rio Grande do Sul again faced a very dry and hot start to the year. In the 2025/26 harvest, the outlook is different. The crops are currently maintaining a productive potential within the average of the last five years, without projections of records, but also without warnings of significant losses, configuring a balanced scenario.
Pre-Rally estimate points to record 25/26 soybean production of 182.2 million tons.
The pre-Rally estimate from Agroconsult, the organizer of the technical expedition, points to a record 25/26 soybean production of 182.2 million tons, representing a growth of 5.91 TP4T compared to the previous harvest. The average Brazilian productivity is estimated at 62.3 sacks per hectare, compared to 60.0 sacks last season.
The planted area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares – an increase of nearly 1 million hectares. Although the rate of expansion is lower than the average of the last ten years, a period in which annual growth was around 1.7 million hectares, the expansion of the cultivated area persists even in a challenging economic environment.
André Debastiani, managing partner of Agroconsult and general coordinator of the Harvest Rally, explains that this movement is driven by different factors: investments from agricultural groups with a long-term vision; increased land value, especially in regions converting pastures to agriculture; and the presence of producers with greater financial stability, who are taking advantage of the moment to expand their operations.
Some states stand out for their expansion. Mato Grosso leads the growth, with an increase of 277,000 hectares compared to the previous harvest. Goiás is also advancing, with almost 159,000 additional hectares, while the Mapito region – Maranhão, Piauí and Tocantins – adds 108,000 hectares.
The only state with a reduction in area is Rio Grande do Sul (42,000 fewer hectares), where some of the areas that had shifted from summer corn to soybeans last season returned to corn this season. Furthermore, the more restrictive economic and financial environment in the state limits new investments, leading producers to prioritize more productive areas and abandon marginal regions, especially in southern Rio Grande do Sul.
In addition to the area growth in most producing regions, Debastiani explains that, despite initial expectations that the economic environment would also pressure investments in the field, the situation is different. “Producers have maintained good fertilization volumes, even without growth, and continue to invest in technology. Apart from Rio Grande do Sul, where there is a reduction in the use of technology, the other states maintain a solid investment pattern, focusing on high productivity. This combination forms the second positive factor of this harvest: in addition to the area expansion, there is maintenance of the technology employed, fundamental to sustaining the productive potential,” he emphasizes.
Planting rhythm
Photo: Eduardo Monteiro
Planting started irregularly in the 25/26 season, reminiscent of the climatic behavior observed in 2023/24, a year marked by strong instability and one of the largest production shortfalls ever recorded in the country. In several states, September and October were difficult months for rainfall to become regular. In Goiás, for example, the delay was historic: the state recorded the latest planting in its history, with rainfall only normalizing at the end of October. A similar situation occurred in Minas Gerais, Maranhão, Piauí, and in regions of southeastern and eastern Mato Grosso, where the rain took longer to arrive.
This scenario initially raised doubts about the crop's potential. However, the stabilizing weather in November allowed planting to progress consistently, alleviating some of the concerns.
Several important regions stood out positively in planting. Western Paraná recorded the earliest planting in its history, while southern Mato Grosso do Sul managed to start early and under good conditions. In Mato Grosso, the scenario is mixed: the mid-north and west of the state had planting on schedule and with more favorable weather conditions, which should contribute to the second crop being sown within the window of least risk.
Climate and productivity before the Rally
Along with good planting conditions and low replanting levels, the weather between November and December helped to redefine the scenario for the 2025/26 crop. After an uneven start, the improvement in rainfall patterns at the turn of the year favored the recovery of crops in practically all producing regions.
Photo: Eduardo Monteiro
In the South, the expectation of a drier cycle, due to the influence of La Niña, did not materialize. In Rio Grande do Sul, the January rains increased the productive potential to 52 sacks per hectare, according to the pre-Rally estimate, above the average of the last five years, but far from the record of 58 sacks in 2020/21. In Paraná, the crops maintain good development, with harvesting started in the west of the state and productivity estimated at 65 sacks per hectare, close to the result of 66 sacks obtained in 2022/23.
In the Midwest, Mato Grosso is expected to reach a productivity of 65 sacks per hectare, according to pre-Rally estimates (compared to 66.5 sacks in the last harvest), despite the initial delay caused by drought and the first signs of a delayed harvest. In Mato Grosso do Sul, the cycle is progressing with more favorable conditions than in the last two harvests, with an estimated 61.5 sacks per hectare, more than 10 sacks above the last two harvests, although below 2022/23. In Goiás, even with late planting, the productive potential is at 66 sacks per hectare, two sacks below the 2024/25 harvest.
In the Northeast, Bahia combines the expansion of irrigated areas with the recovery of rainfed crops after the return of rainfall, maintaining a potential of 66 sacks per hectare, within the average of the last five years. Maranhão, Piauí, and Tocantins faced delays and a greater need for replanting, but the region should reach an average of 60 sacks per hectare, slightly below the last harvest, but still within the recent historical average.
In the Southeast, São Paulo has made rapid progress in planting and projects 62 sacks per hectare. Minas Gerais, on the other hand, had the latest planting in recent years, which puts pressure on the corn calendar, but maintains a potential of 66 sacks per hectare. “Field assessments are essential to deepen the analyses, validate and adjust the numbers. The weather forecasts for the next 15 days are favorable and there is no major problem to worry producers. If this condition remains in February and March, we should see a significant improvement in productivity figures,” says the Rally coordinator.
100,000 kilometers
Photo: Eduardo Monteiro
The Rally's technical teams will travel over 100,000 km through 14 states – Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Distrito Federal, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins, Bahia and Pará. The areas visited account for 97% of soybean production area and 72% of corn production area.
Since January 6th, technicians have been in the field and will remain until the end of March and the beginning of April. “This work allows us to directly observe crop development, record regional differences, evaluate the impacts of management practices, and, above all, monitor the influence of the climate going forward. All of this ensures that each change is captured accurately and transformed into reliable information for the sector,” emphasizes Debastiani.
Team 1 began operations in Western Paraná, starting from Cascavel. Over the course of a week, the technicians toured farmlands in the regions of Marechal Cândido Rondon, Palotina, Cascavel, Pato Branco, Laranjeiras do Sul, Goioerê, and Campo Mourão, concluding their journey in Maringá on the 15th.
Next, Team 2 went into the field along the BR-163 highway in Mato Grosso. Departing from Cuiabá on the 11th, the technicians headed towards Nova Mutum, evaluating soybean areas in the regions of Lucas do Rio Verde, Sorriso, Guarantã do Norte, and Sinop, where the work concludes on January 19th.
Also in Mato Grosso, team 3 began work in the western part of the state on the 10th, passing through areas in Nova Mutum, Diamantino, Campo Novo do Parecis, Sapezal and Campos de Júlio, before heading to Vilhena (RO), with arrival scheduled in Cuiabá on the 17th. Meanwhile, in southeastern Mato Grosso, team 4 begins evaluations in Sinop on the 19th, heading to Campo Verde, Paranatinga, Primavera do Leste and Rondonópolis, concluding the journey in Cuiabá on the 26th.
In southern Mato Grosso do Sul, team 5 will travel through the regions of Ponta Porã, Naviraí, Dourados, and Maracaju between January 29th and February 5th, departing from and returning to Campo Grande. Simultaneously, teams 6 and 7 will return to sections of the BR-163 highway and western Mato Grosso for another round of crop inspections.
