EN 
PT_BR 
SAO PAULO, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Mato Grosso is expected to harvest a soybean crop of over 50 million tons in 2025/26, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) estimated on Monday, raising productivity expectations based on results obtained from the ongoing harvest.
The projected average productivity was adjusted to 64.73 sacks per hectare, an increase of 7.06% compared to the previous estimate, but still below the record seen in the last harvest (66.29 sacks/ha).
The increase is occurring "primarily due to the good performance of areas already harvested," Imea said in a report.
The institute linked to producers stated that the adjustment was made based on agronomic information, through the Imea em Campo project, which has been monitoring crops since December. The harvest in the state, Brazil's largest producer, reached approximately 25% of the planted area, the agency reported on Friday.
With the productive reassessment, Imea estimated the Mato Grosso harvest at 50.5 million tons, which would be a drop of 0.74% compared to the record of the previous cycle.
Private consulting firms have also been revising their crop projections upwards. On Monday, Céleres and StoneX raised their projections to over 181 million tons in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of the commodity.
For the coming weeks, the crop outlook remains mostly favorable in Mato Grosso, "with expectations of a good harvest pace," added Imea.
Current weather forecasts do not indicate significant rainfall, reducing the risk of operational losses during the harvest, the institute highlighted.
However, negative revisions to the figures may occur if there is a significant change in the weather pattern.
For the second corn crop, which is currently being planted, Imea maintained the area estimate at 7.39 million hectares, an increase of 1.831 TP4T compared to the previous crop, mainly associated with the expansion of the productive capacity of ethanol plants over the last few years, which has increased the demand for the cereal.
Corn production for the 2025/26 crop year in Mato Grosso is estimated at 51.72 million tons, a reduction of 6.70% compared to the previous season, since the number still takes into account the average productivity of the last three harvests, and not the high results of the past cycle.
COTTON
The cotton cultivation area in Mato Grosso was projected at 1.42 million hectares, a reduction of 0.83% compared to the previous estimate and 8.06% compared to the 2024/25 crop.
"In general, the new projection follows the trend of cotton growers intending to reduce the cotton acreage for the cycle, mainly due to the higher production costs compared to the 2024/25 crop, and consequently, tighter margins," explained Imea.
Mato Grosso, also the largest cotton producer in Brazil, is expected to produce 2.56 million tons in 2025/26, a decrease of 15.16% compared to the previous year.
Imea noted that planting is ahead of schedule compared to the previous cycle, with more than two-thirds of the projected area sown within the ideal weather window, unlike what was recorded in the 2024/25 crop season.
(By Roberto Samora)
