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ABIDJAN, March 25 (Reuters) - Ivory Coast will cut the amount of cocoa it sells on international markets from the next harvest, according to two regulatory sources, as the world’s biggest producer of the main ingredient in chocolate faces a second year of declining output.
They said the regulator will lower the contractual sales cap to 1.3 million metric tons for the 2025/26 cocoa season from the usual 1.7 million tons, following two weaker harvests caused by climate change, aging plantations and the spread of plant diseases.
Three sources at the Ivory Coast Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) said two consecutive declines in production suggested it was not just a cyclical slump but a structural trend.
Around 70% to 80% of the country’s main agricultural production is sold in advance on world markets as “contracted” sales, which totaled around 1.7 million tonnes during the 2022/2023 season, when Ivory Coast produced 2.3 million tonnes of cocoa.
But that production fell to around 1.75 million tonnes the following season and is estimated at a similar level for the 2024/2025 season, which ends this month.
An analysis of data from the past two seasons has raised concerns that Ivory Coast may not return to its average production level of 1.3 million tonnes of cocoa during the main October-March harvest for several years, they said.
On average, the main harvest yields 1.7 million tons of cocoa and the intermediate harvest, around half a million.
A CCC official said capping contracted sales at 1.3 million tonnes was more realistic for the next main crop of 2025/26.
“We don’t want to take any risks. That’s why we decided to limit ourselves to 1.3 million tonnes of export contract sales,” one of the CCC sources said.
Cocoa farmers, pod counters and exporters said swollen shoot disease was spreading rapidly across all 13 cocoa-growing regions of Ivory Coast.
They estimated that the viral disease, for which there is no treatment, has affected about half of the country's cocoa fields.
In the long term, rejuvenating plantations with new seeds could help, as ageing orchards, more susceptible to disease and climate change, account for 70% of Ivory Coast’s total, according to industry sources.
Irregular rainfall and droughts also impacted cocoa production.
The weather between April and June will provide insight into the next main harvest, with two CCC sources saying their pod counting teams were reporting similar conditions to 2023 and 2024.
“Currently, weather conditions are difficult for this season’s mid-season crop,” said a capsule counter.
Reporting by Ange Aboa Editing by Sofia Christensen and Tomasz Janowski
