EN 
PT_BR 
The climate forecast from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) indicates variability in rainfall in Brazil during the month of December 2025. In much of the Southern Region, estimates indicate below-average rainfall (yellow tone in Figure 1a). Conversely, in different areas of the Central-West, North, Northeast, and Southeast regions, above-average volumes are predicted (blue tone in the map of Figure 1a).
- Figure 1a
Regarding Northern RegionRainfall volumes up to 50 mm above the historical average are predicted for much of south-central and north-central Amazonas, south-central Tocantins, most of Pará, and practically all of Amapá. In the aforementioned areas of Tocantins and Amapá, volumes up to 150 mm above the average for the period are predicted. On the other hand, volumes below the climatological average are predicted for almost all of Acre, western Amazonas, and south-central Pará. In the remaining areas of the region, the forecast indicates values close to the climatological average for December.
For the Northeast RegionRainfall above the historical average for December is expected in practically all states of Bahia and Piauí, while the rest of the region should experience rainfall volumes close to the climatological average for the period. Conversely, rainfall below the historical average is expected only for isolated areas in northern Maranhão.
Regarding Central-West RegionRainfall above average is expected across virtually the entire state of Goiás, as well as in western Mato Grosso and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul. Conversely, below-average rainfall is predicted for central Mato Grosso and northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul.
For the Southeast Region Above-average rainfall is expected in virtually all of the states of Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, as well as a large part of São Paulo. Conversely, rainfall is expected to be near average in almost the entire state of Espírito Santo.
For the Southern RegionRainfall below the historical average is expected across virtually the entire region. Below-average rainfall is predicted for the entire state of Rio Grande do Sul (with volumes up to 75 millimeters below average in the western part of the state), as well as for most of Santa Catarina and western Paraná.
Temperature
The forecast indicates that temperatures should be above average across almost the entire country (orange and red tones on the map in Figure 1b). Northern RegionTemperatures are expected to be up to 1.5°C above average, especially in southeastern Pará, bordering Tocantins, where temperatures may vary between 25°C and 32.5°C. Some parts of the Northern Region, such as Amapá, western Amazonas, and northwestern Pará, indicate deviations within the average or negative, as low as -0.4°C.
- Figure 1b
In Northeast RegionThe forecast predicts above-average temperatures in all states, especially in southern Piauí, where deviations could reach 1°C above average and values could exceed 27°C. Even in coastal areas, temperatures are expected to be high, ranging between 25.0°C and 27.0°C. In much of Rio Grande do Norte, northern Paraíba, and northern Piauí, the forecast indicates temperatures within the average range.
In Central-West RegionAverage temperatures above the climatological average for the month are expected to prevail, with the highest increases in northern and eastern Mato Grosso, as well as in the central portion of Mato Grosso do Sul, where deviations could reach 1.5 °C.
For the Southeast RegionAverage temperatures may exceed 20°C, with lower values occurring mainly in areas of eastern Minas Gerais and higher temperatures forecast for the western part of São Paulo, northern Minas Gerais, and the entire state of Espírito Santo, with deviations of up to 1°C in these regions.
In Southern RegionTemperatures may be within the average range in the central-western region of Paraná, on the border with Santa Catarina, along the coastal strip of Santa Catarina, and in southern Rio Grande do Sul. However, in the central region of Santa Catarina and in much of Paraná, temperature deviations may be up to 1°C above average, with values exceeding 18°C.
Possible impacts on agricultural crops
In Northern RegionThe INMET climate forecast for December 2025 indicates rising air temperatures across much of the country, accompanied by below-normal rainfall in southwestern and northeastern Pará, western and central Amazonas, and western Acre. These conditions may increase the risk of water deficit, primarily affecting permanent crops such as cocoa, açaí, and tropical fruit. Limited soil moisture can reduce fruit set, fruit size and weight, and compromise the quality of cocoa beans, especially in areas already susceptible to heat stress. On the other hand, in north-central Amapá, the far north and south of Amazonas, the Lower Amazonas, and southeastern Pará, the forecast of above-average rainfall tends to favor vegetative development and water replenishment, creating favorable conditions for crop growth and pasture recovery.
In Northeast RegionThe forecast of above-average rainfall, coupled with higher temperatures across much of the region, tends to favor crops developing in December, especially beans, corn, and irrigated fruit farming. For bean and corn crops in the grain-filling stage, the increased rainfall should ensure an adequate water supply, contributing to greater grain uniformity and reduced losses due to heat stress.
In Central-West RegionThe forecast of above-average rainfall and temperatures across most of the region tends to favor the development of first-crop soybeans and corn that are currently in the vegetative stage, advancing to flowering in areas sown earlier. However, in areas with below-average rainfall, especially in northern Mato Grosso and western Mato Grosso do Sul, there may be short periods of water restriction, increasing the risk of water stress in the early stages of the cycle, particularly for late-planted crops. Furthermore, the combination of high temperatures and high humidity, typical of this period, can intensify the pressure from pests and foliar diseases.
In Southeast RegionThe forecast indicates above-average rainfall, coupled with above-average temperatures, which tends to favor the sowing and initial establishment of summer crops such as soybeans, corn, and beans, especially in areas with greater water availability. This scenario contributes to the adequate replenishment of soil moisture, an essential condition for perennial crops such as coffee and sugarcane.
In Southern RegionThe forecast of below-average rainfall across much of the territory, coupled with rising temperatures, especially in north-central Paraná, tends to favor the final stages of development of winter crops, as well as harvesting operations. Lower humidity reduces the incidence of fungal diseases, while higher temperatures accelerate the ripening of summer crops.
THE INMET It is an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAP) and represents Brazil at the World Meteorological Organization (OMM) since 1950.
