2026/27 Harvest: Grain production could grow 8,64% in RS

The 2026/2027 summer crop in Rio Grande do Sul is expected to reach 35.64 million tons, an increase of 8.64% compared to the previous cycle, according to data released by Emater/RS-Ascar. The initial estimate was presented this Tuesday (1st), during the 49th Expointer, in Esteio, highlighting the advance of corn and the projected increase in productivity for the soyThe survey was conducted between August 10 and 24 and involved almost all municipalities that produce soybeans, corn, and silage corn. bean and rice in the State.

According to data released by Emater/RS-Ascar, the total area destined for summer grains should reach 8,428,151 hectares, a reduction of 0.37% compared to the previous harvest.

Among the main crops, grain corn shows one of the largest area expansions. The projection is for 896,401 hectares cultivated, an increase of 7.421 TP4T compared to the 834,500 hectares of the previous harvest.

Corn production is estimated at 6,911,954 tons, an increase of 7.181 TP4T compared to the 6,448,709 tons obtained previously. Average productivity should reach 7,711 kg/ha, a decrease of 0.251 TP4T compared to the 7,730 kg/ha recorded in the last cycle.

Soybeans remain the main crop in terms of production volume. According to data released by Emater/RS-Ascar, the oilseed is expected to yield 21,151,135 tons, an increase of 15.321 TP4T compared to the 18,341,586 tons of the previous harvest. The increase in production is associated with an estimated productivity of 3,183 kg/ha, a rise of 16.371 TP4T over the 2,735 kg/ha recorded in the previous cycle.

The area dedicated to soybeans, on the other hand, is expected to decrease by 0.92%, to 6,645,384 hectares. In the previous crop season, 6,707,017 hectares were cultivated.

In the first-crop bean harvest, projected productivity also shows improvement. According to data released by Emater/RS-Ascar, the yield should increase from 1,627 kg/ha to 1,759 kg/ha, a rise of 8.101 TP4T. The estimated production is 43,244 tons, an increase of 1.201 TP4T compared to the 42,732 tons obtained in the previous harvest. The area cultivated with first-crop beans, however, should decrease by 6.361 TP4T, from 26,258 to 24,587 hectares.

Corn destined for silage shows more moderate growth. The projected area for the 2026/2027 crop is 369,389 hectares, an increase of 0.191 TP4T compared to the 368,692 hectares of the previous cycle. Average productivity should reach 38,392 kg/ha, an increase of 3.361 TP4T over the 37,144 kg/ha previously recorded. With this, production should reach 14,181,712 tons, an increase of 3.581 TP4T compared to the 13,692,153 tons of the last crop.

Rice production is moving in the opposite direction. According to data released by Emater/RS-Ascar, the cultivated area is expected to decrease by 3.41 TP4T, from 891,909 to 861,779 hectares. Production is estimated at 7,533,037 tons, a reduction of 5.491 TP4T compared to the 7,970,527 tons of the previous cycle. Productivity is also expected to decline by 2.211 TP4T, from 8,939 kg/ha to 8,741 kg/ha.

When assessing the outlook for the harvest, the president of Emater/RS, Claudinei Baldissera, highlighted the growth in the area planted with grain corn compared to the previous cycle and the 2024/2025 harvest. "This increase in area is associated with factors such as the use of irrigation and good quality seeds."

Baldissera also highlighted corn's position as a crop that performs better under stable climatic conditions and is becoming increasingly important as a component of crop rotation.

Regarding silage corn, the president highlighted the growth, albeit slight, of the projected area. "It's a significant area and represents a very important feed source for the animal protein sector, found in all regions of the state."

According to Mateus Soares da Rocha, technical director of Emater/RS, one of the main challenges for the next harvest is related to the indebtedness of rural producers.

This situation restricts access to credit from public and private financial institutions. According to data released by Emater/RS-Ascar, the scenario is aggravated by the high cost of agricultural insurance and Proagro (a Brazilian agricultural insurance program).

The combination of these factors increases producers' financial exposure and may limit their ability to invest and contract protection mechanisms against climate and production risks.

In this scenario, technical assistance should play an important role throughout the entire cycle. Planning should begin before planting, with crop selection, financial organization, and risk analysis, and continue during crop establishment and development.

Monitoring should also extend to the post-harvest period, especially regarding decisions related to marketing and income management. "There is no room for error," the technical director emphasized when assessing the conditions for the next harvest.

Among the main factors of concern is the occurrence of El Niño, which could interfere with the start of summer crop planting. The forecast of above-normal rainfall may reduce the planting window, hinder access to areas, and decrease the availability of solar radiation.

These conditions can compromise the initial establishment of crops and reduce productive potential. Despite the risks, the projection also presents positive aspects. Among them is the estimated increase in the area and production of corn, a crop that shows greater adaptation and productive response in conditions associated with El Niño.

In the case of soybeans, the trend is different. According to data released by Emater/RS-Ascar, the area dedicated to the oilseed is expected to be reduced by 61,633 hectares, mainly in regions considered less suitable for the crop. Among the highlighted locations are the Porto Alegre and Soledade regions, where soil and climate conditions and production risks contribute to the reduction in the area dedicated to soybeans.

Given this scenario, crop planning should combine financial management, risk analysis, technical guidance, climate planning, and marketing strategies. The ability to anticipate risks and adjust decisions throughout the cycle will be fundamental to preserving the income of rural families and reducing vulnerability to debt, high protection costs, and greater climate variability.

In his meteorological assessment, meteorologist and coordinator of the Agroclimatic Monitoring and Alert System of Rio Grande do Sul (Simagro), Flávio Varone, highlighted the influence of El Niño on spring, the period when planting of summer grain crops begins. "Spring presents a probability of a strong/very strong El Niño, with average temperatures and intense rainfall above normal for the state, and no forecast of late frosts," he assessed.

For the start of summer, Varone projects delays in planting and the occurrence of crop diseases due to the combination of high temperatures and excess moisture, exacerbated by reduced sunlight and difficulties in field operations.