EN 
PT_BR 
The international soybean market is following the accelerated progress of planting in the United States, the maintenance of attractive margins for processing, and the developments in trade relations between the US and China. According to data from Itaú BBA Agro Consulting, these factors remain among the main drivers of soybean prices.
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In the United States, planting has already reached 33% of the area projected for the crop, a percentage higher than the 28% recorded in the same period of 2025 and above the average of the last five years, which was 23%. This faster pace is occurring even in a scenario where an increase in cultivated area is expected.
Weather conditions are also favorable for crop development. From the second half of May onwards, forecasts indicate higher rainfall volumes across the country's grain-producing belt. With soil moisture at adequate levels and without significant deviations, there are currently no relevant weather concerns for the crop.
Another factor continuing to support the market is the profitability of soybean processing. Margins remain attractive in several regions of the world, with the exception of China, driven mainly by strong demand in the United States. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its 2025/26 crop crushing projection upwards, estimating processing of 71 million tons, a volume 7% higher than that recorded in the 2024/25 season.
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The rise in oil prices also contributes to this scenario, strengthening soybean oil prices. As a result, the share of oil in total revenue from soybean derivatives reached 51%.
In the political arena, the market is closely monitoring negotiations between the United States and China. Any indication of a more consistent resumption of Chinese purchases of US soybeans for the 2026/27 crop year could have a positive impact on the market.
In Brazil, fertilizer sales for the 2026/27 crop season remain below the historical average. By the end of April, sales had reached 541 TP4T of the projected volume, while the average for the last five years is 611 TP4T. Among the states, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul showed progress in purchases and are now approaching or slightly exceeding the historical average. In contrast, Rio Grande do Sul and the southeastern states continue to have the greatest delay in acquiring these inputs.
